Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#191 Bedford (1-4) 113.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#57 of 108 in Division II
#12 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 12-18 H #76 Macedonia Nordonia (4-1 D2 R5), pick: W by 12 (72%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 36-0 H #288 Elyria (0-5 D1 R2), pick: W by 9 (68%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 20-27 A #90 Garfield Heights (5-0 D2 R5), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 6-23 A #182 Copley (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 9 (70%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-35 H #53 Chardon Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 14 (79%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #71 Maple Heights (5-0 D2 R5), pick: L by 13 (78%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #155 Cleveland Heights (3-2 D1 R1), pick: L by 3 (58%)
Oct 11 (W8) H #380 East Cleveland Shaw (2-3 D3 R10), pick: W by 13 (77%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #79 Lorain (3-2 D1 R2), pick: L by 14 (79%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #374 Warrensville Heights (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 13 (78%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#13 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
5.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-2%, 2W-13%, 3W-38%, 4W-35%, 5W-11%

Playoff chance
3% now (need 6-4)
13% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 9.05 (7.45-14.70) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 13.40 (11.55-17.25) 12% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 18.05 (17.30-19.65) 93% in, 0% home, proj. #7 (#5-out)

Best realistic scenario
4.4% WWWLW 13.95 pts, 13% in (out, range #6-out) Archbishop Hoban 81%

Worst realistic scenario
6.6% LLWLL 3.20 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
21% LLWLW 4.75 pts, out
19% LWWLW 8.70 pts, out
6.1% LLWWW 8.85 pts, out
5.7% LWWLL 6.65 pts, out
5.1% LWWWW 12.80 pts, 5% in (out, range #7-out) Archbishop Hoban 85%
5.1% WLWLW 9.95 pts, out
(27% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Macedonia Nordonia (4-1 D2 R5) over Twinsburg (3-2 D2 R5)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
54% Akron Archbishop Hoban (5-0)
18% Garfield Heights (5-0)
13% Maple Heights (5-0)
9% Macedonia Nordonia (4-1)
3% Painesville Riverside (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 113.0 (1-3, #190, D2 #59) 6% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 119.7 (1-2, #122, D2 #33) 30% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home, proj. out
W2: 123.6 (1-1, #86, D2 #23) 59% (need 6-4), 28% home, proj. #6
W1: 119.2 (0-1, #123, D2 #35) 36% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home, proj. out
W0: 128.2 (0-0, #62, D2 #15) 77% (bubble if 6-4), 50% home, proj. #3
Last year 131.8 (10-2)