Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#67 Cleveland Glenville (3-2) 127.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#10 of 107 in Division III
#1 of 26 in Region 10
Eitel team page
Region 10 projections
Region 10 playoff probabilities
Region 10 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 17-42 A #19 Euclid (4-1 D1 R1), pick: L by 16 (77%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 19-17 A #55 Powell Olentangy Liberty (2-3 D1 R2), pick: L by 18 (81%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 18-42 A #1 Mentor (5-0 D1 R1), pick: L by 27 (92%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 40-6 H #604 Cleveland Collinwood (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 38 (98%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 45-0 H #644 Cleveland East Technical (0-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 41 (99%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #503 Cleveland Rhodes (1-4 D1 R1), pick: W by 34 (98%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #627 Cleveland John Adams (1-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 39 (99%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #652 Cleveland John F Kennedy (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 40 (99%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #438 Cleveland John Marshall (4-1 D1 R1), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #496 Cleveland John Hay (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 33 (97%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#28 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 96
Projected record 8-2
21.57 Harbin points (divisor 96)
Projected #3 seed in R10 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-5%, 8W-95%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 7-3), 81% home
99% with a win in next game, and 97% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 17.95 (14.20-21.55) 99% in, 17% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)
8W: 21.57 (18.45-24.02) 100% in, 85% home, proj. #4 (#1-#7)

Best realistic scenario
95% WWWWW 21.57 pts, 100% in, 85% home (#4, range #1-#7) Rocky River 19%

Worst realistic scenario
3.1% WWWLW 17.38 pts, 99% in, 9% home (#6, range #3-out) Columbian 22%

Most likely other scenarios
1.1% LWWWW 19.05 pts, 100% in, 30% home (#5, range #3-#8) Rocky River 24%
1.0% WWWWL 18.63 pts, 100% in, 27% home (#5, range #4-#8) Norwalk 20%

Teams to root for
Week 6: Powell Olentangy Liberty (2-3 D1 R2) over Westerville Central (3-2 D1 R2)
Week 8: Powell Olentangy Liberty (2-3 D1 R2) over Lewis Center Olentangy (1-4 D2 R8)
Week 7: Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6) over Rocky River (4-1 D3 R10)
Week 10: Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6) over Bay Village Bay (5-0 D3 R10)
Week 9: Richfield Revere (3-2 D3 R9) over Bay Village Bay (5-0 D3 R10)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
19% Rocky River (4-1)
17% Norwalk (4-1)
17% Tiffin Columbian (4-1)
11% Clyde (3-2)
9% Bowling Green (2-3)

Championship probabilities
34% Region 10 champ
5.5% Division 3 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 127.0 (2-2, #64, D3 #9) 99% (need 7-3), 73% home, proj. #3
W3: 126.0 (1-2, #70, D3 #10) 99% (need 7-3), 75% home, proj. #3
W2: 126.5 (1-1, #58, D3 #8) 99% (need 7-3), 68% home, proj. #4
W1: 117.7 (0-1, #129, D3 #23) 77% (bubble if 6-4), 18% home, proj. #7
W0: 121.9 (0-0, #101, D3 #15) 83% (bubble if 6-4), 41% home, proj. #5
Last year 120.3 (7-4)