Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#90 Garfield Heights (5-0) 123.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#27 of 108 in Division II
#6 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 42-0 A #415 Lakewood (0-5 D2 R6), pick: W by 11 (70%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 35-6 A #412 Brecksville-Broadview Heights (0-5 D2 R5), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 27-20 H #191 Bedford (1-4 D2 R5), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 53-14 H #503 Cleveland Rhodes (1-4 D1 R1), pick: W by 31 (96%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 19-0 H #153 Parma Padua Franciscan (4-1 D3 R10), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Sep 27 (W6) A #222 Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6), pick: W by 8 (69%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #188 Canfield South Range (3-2 D5 R17), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #332 Logan (1-4 D2 R7), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Oct 20 (W9) A #345 Hunting Valley University School (2-3 D3 R10), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #526 Parma Normandy (3-2 D2 R6), pick: W by 32 (97%)

Lists on which the team appears
Winning & losing streaks
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#95 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
22.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #3 seed in R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-2%, 8W-15%, 9W-42%, 10W-40%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 7-3), 79% home
99% with a win in next game, and 97% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 16.05 (12.75-20.40) 77% in, 3% home, proj. #7 (#4-out)
8W: 19.10 (14.20-24.25) 99% in, 32% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)
9W: 22.35 (16.80-27.95) 99% in, 81% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)
10W: 25.40 (20.15-32.65) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #3 (#1-#6)

Best realistic scenario
40% WWWWW 25.40 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#3, range #1-#6) Warren G Harding 18%

Worst realistic scenario
6.0% LLWWW 18.35 pts, 98% in, 19% home (#6, range #2-out) Nordonia 24%

Most likely other scenarios
17% WLWWW 22.60 pts, 100% in, 86% home (#3, range #1-#7) Nordonia 19%
13% LWWWW 21.15 pts, 99% in, 66% home (#4, range #2-out) Nordonia 22%
5.8% WWLWW 23.60 pts, 100% in, 95% home (#3, range #2-#6) Warren G Harding 21%
5.6% WWWLW 22.60 pts, 100% in, 84% home (#3, range #2-#7) Nordonia 21%
2.4% WLWLW 19.45 pts, 99% in, 36% home (#5, range #3-out) Nordonia 28%
2.3% WLLWW 20.80 pts, 100% in, 59% home (#4, range #2-#7) Warren G Harding 20%
(8% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Chagrin Falls Kenston (5-0 D3 R9) over Painesville Riverside (4-1 D2 R5)
Week 9: Austintown-Fitch (4-1 D1 R1) over Youngstown Boardman (4-1 D2 R5)
Week 6: Canfield (5-0 D3 R9) over Youngstown Boardman (4-1 D2 R5)
Week 8: Lorain (3-2 D1 R2) over Maple Heights (5-0 D2 R5)
Week 7: Cleveland Rhodes (1-4 D1 R1) over Cleveland John Hay (1-4 D3 R10)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
19% Macedonia Nordonia (4-1)
18% Warren G Harding (3-2)
16% Painesville Riverside (4-1)
16% Youngstown Boardman (4-1)
7% Twinsburg (3-2)

Championship probabilities
1.6% Region 5 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 119.4 (4-0, #133, D2 #39) 91% (bubble if 7-3), 55% home, proj. #3
W3: 122.2 (3-0, #96, D2 #25) 96% (need 7-3), 71% home, proj. #2
W2: 119.7 (2-0, #122, D2 #35) 76% (bubble if 7-3), 34% home, proj. #4
W1: 113.6 (1-0, #175, D2 #51) 44% (bubble if 7-3), 14% home, proj. #7
W0: 113.0 (0-0, #212, D2 #62) 28% (need 7-3), 8% home, proj. #8
Last year 114.2 (5-5)