Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#415 Lakewood (0-5) 96.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#92 of 108 in Division II
#22 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 0-42 H #90 Garfield Heights (5-0 D2 R5), pick: L by 11 (70%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-56 A #93 Amherst Steele (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 20 (85%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 12-50 A #136 Berea-Midpark (3-2 D1 R1), pick: L by 22 (88%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 14-49 H #96 Olmsted Falls (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 23 (90%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-49 A #40 Avon Lake (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 32 (97%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #241 North Olmsted (2-3 D2 R6), pick: L by 19 (87%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #37 Avon (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 31 (96%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #298 Westlake (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #302 Grafton Midview (0-5 D2 R6), pick: L by 12 (75%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #309 North Ridgeville (1-4 D2 R6), pick: L by 8 (68%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#5 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
1.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-23%, 1W-41%, 2W-27%, 3W-8%, 4W-1%

Best realistic scenario
2.7% LLWWW 4.80 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
23% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
13% LLLLW 1.80 pts, out
12% LLWLL 1.80 pts, out
9.3% LLLWL 1.20 pts, out
6.9% LLWLW 3.60 pts, out
6.3% WLLLL 2.40 pts, out
5.6% LLLWW 3.00 pts, out
(21% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 96.3 (0-4, #417, D2 #93) out
W3: 96.5 (0-3, #411, D2 #94) 1% , proj. out
W2: 96.7 (0-2, #405, D2 #94) 1% , proj. out
W1: 95.8 (0-1, #427, D2 #98) 1% , proj. out
W0: 100.3 (0-0, #390, D2 #95) 1% , proj. out
Last year 99.6 (1-9)