Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#241 North Olmsted (2-3) 109.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#67 of 108 in Division II
#13 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 28-20 H #222 Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6), pick: W by 14 (75%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-49 A #40 Avon Lake (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 17 (81%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 33-27 H #302 Grafton Midview (0-5 D2 R6), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 21-49 A #37 Avon (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 19 (85%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 33-34 A #298 Westlake (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #415 Lakewood (0-5 D2 R6), pick: W by 19 (87%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #309 North Ridgeville (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 7 (65%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #93 Amherst Steele (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 6 (65%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #136 Berea-Midpark (3-2 D1 R1), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #96 Olmsted Falls (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 6 (64%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#34 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
10.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-4%, 3W-24%, 4W-40%, 5W-25%, 6W-6%

Playoff chance
5% now (bubble if 6-4), 1% home
6% with a win in next game, and 3% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 10.15 (6.55-17.35) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 13.70 (10.15-20.95) 5% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 17.80 (14.35-23.25) 53% in, 0% home, proj. #8 (#5-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.0% WWLWW 16.80 pts, 35% in (out, range #6-out) Central Catholic 61%

Worst realistic scenario
3.7% LLLLL 5.95 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
20% WWLLL 9.40 pts, out
14% WLLLL 7.15 pts, out
7.4% WWLWL 12.55 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
5.9% WWLLW 13.70 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
5.9% WWWLL 14.20 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out)
5.6% LWLLL 8.20 pts, out
(36% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Findlay (2-3 D1 R2) over Toledo St John's Jesuit (3-2 D2 R6)
Week 8: Toledo Scott (4-1 D3 R10) over Toledo Waite (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 6: Toledo Whitmer (4-1 D1 R2) over Toledo Central Catholic (5-0 D2 R6)
Week 8: Lakewood (0-5 D2 R6) over Westlake (1-4 D2 R6)
Week 6: Toledo Start (1-4 D1 R2) over Toledo Waite (4-1 D2 R6)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
49% Toledo Central Catholic (5-0)
27% Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0)
12% Avon Lake (5-0)
7% Avon (4-1)
3% Amherst Steele (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 113.9 (2-2, #182, D2 #57) 18% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 114.9 (2-1, #170, D2 #49) 34% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home, proj. #8
W2: 108.3 (1-1, #247, D2 #67) 6% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 109.3 (1-0, #234, D2 #66) 10% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 111.6 (0-0, #229, D2 #66) 10% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 110.6 (4-6)