Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#148 Painesville Riverside (4-1) 117.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#46 of 108 in Division II
#10 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-28 H #107 Perry (4-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 11 (70%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 29-28 H #176 Uniontown Green (1-4 D2 R7), pick: L by 5 (60%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 41-6 A #603 Painesville Harvey (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 26 (92%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 28-27 H #169 Chardon (2-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 28-13 A #314 Madison (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 7 (66%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #220 Eastlake North (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 10 (71%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #75 Chagrin Falls Kenston (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 13 (77%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #218 Willoughby South (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #255 Lyndhurst Brush (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #209 Mayfield (2-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 1 (52%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#78 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
18.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #6 seed in R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-6%, 6W-23%, 7W-36%, 8W-27%, 9W-7%

Playoff chance
81% now (bubble if 6-4), 24% home
90% with a win in next game, and 61% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 11.75 (8.75-16.55) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 14.95 (11.55-19.70) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#3-out)
7W: 18.00 (14.70-23.25) 96% in, 8% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
8W: 21.25 (18.80-25.60) 100% in, 52% home, proj. #4 (#2-#8)
9W: 25.55 (24.25-27.95) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #3 (#2-#5)

Best realistic scenario
6.9% WWWWW 25.55 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#3, range #2-#5) Nordonia 26%

Worst realistic scenario
3.6% LLWWL 14.50 pts, 37% in (out, range #6-out) Archbishop Hoban 50%

Most likely other scenarios
15% WLWWW 20.50 pts, 100% in, 33% home (#5, range #2-#8) Garfield Heights 25%
7.4% WLWWL 17.50 pts, 96% in, 2% home (#7, range #4-out) Maple Heights 28%
7.2% LLWWW 17.50 pts, 93% in, 3% home (#7, range #3-out) Maple Heights 32%
7.0% WLLWW 17.55 pts, 96% in, 3% home (#6, range #3-out) Maple Heights 30%
6.8% WLWLW 17.60 pts, 96% in, 6% home (#6, range #3-out) Maple Heights 27%
3.6% WLLWL 14.60 pts, 54% in (#8, range #5-out) Archbishop Hoban 48%
(42% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Austintown-Fitch (4-1 D1 R1) over Youngstown Boardman (4-1 D2 R5)
Week 6: Canfield (5-0 D3 R9) over Youngstown Boardman (4-1 D2 R5)
Week 10: Chardon (2-3 D3 R9) over Eastlake North (2-3 D2 R5)
Week 7: Chardon (2-3 D3 R9) over Willoughby South (2-3 D2 R5)
Week 6: Uniontown Green (1-4 D2 R7) over Medina Highland (4-1 D2 R7)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
20% Garfield Heights (5-0)
19% Maple Heights (5-0)
17% Macedonia Nordonia (4-1)
13% Warren G Harding (3-2)
12% Akron Archbishop Hoban (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 113.5 (3-1, #186, D2 #58) 44% (need 7-3), 12% home, proj. #7
W3: 109.6 (2-1, #228, D2 #64) 19% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
W2: 110.2 (1-1, #218, D2 #60) 17% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W1: 107.7 (0-1, #256, D2 #71) 9% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 111.4 (0-0, #232, D2 #68) 21% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home, proj. out
Last year 109.9 (3-7)