Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#555 Parma (1-4) 83.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#105 of 108 in Division II
#27 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) W 41-6 H #706 Cleveland Lincoln West (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 33 (94%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-34 A #178 North Royalton (2-3 D2 R6), pick: L by 23 (88%)
Sep 06 (W3) L 0-23 H #438 Cleveland John Marshall (4-1 D1 R1), pick: W by 18 (82%)
Sep 13 (W4) L 13-38 H #151 Bay Village Bay (5-0 D3 R10), pick: L by 28 (94%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-12 A #526 Parma Normandy (3-2 D2 R6), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #377 Elyria Catholic (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 15 (82%)
Oct 06 (W7) A #345 Hunting Valley University School (2-3 D3 R10), pick: L by 14 (80%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #222 Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 21 (89%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #229 Rocky River (4-1 D3 R10), pick: L by 19 (86%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #313 Parma Heights Holy Name (1-4 D3 R10), pick: L by 17 (84%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#99 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 98
Projected record 1-9
0.55 Harbin points (divisor 98)
Projected out of R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-55%, 2W-35%, 3W-9%, 4W-1%

Best realistic scenario
2.2% WWLLL 6.29 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
55% LLLLL 0.55 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
14% WLLLL 3.70 pts, out
7.0% LWLLL 3.19 pts, out
6.3% LLLLW 3.29 pts, out
4.2% LLLWL 4.98 pts, out
3.8% LLWLL 4.67 pts, out
(8% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 87.3 (1-3, #514, D2 #100) 1% , proj. out
W3: 85.3 (1-2, #545, D2 #104) 1% , proj. out
W2: 98.2 (1-1, #387, D2 #91) 7% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 98.5 (1-0, #385, D2 #94) 10% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 100.9 (0-0, #379, D2 #93) 9% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 96.6 (4-6)