Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#222 Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1) 110.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#64 of 108 in Division II
#12 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 20-28 A #241 North Olmsted (2-3 D2 R6), pick: L by 14 (75%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 31-12 H #438 Cleveland John Marshall (4-1 D1 R1), pick: W by 13 (75%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 27-14 H #256 Brunswick (0-5 D1 R1), pick: L by 13 (75%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 48-14 H #526 Parma Normandy (3-2 D2 R6), pick: W by 25 (92%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 31-13 A #377 Elyria Catholic (3-2 D5 R18), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Sep 27 (W6) H #90 Garfield Heights (5-0 D2 R5), pick: L by 8 (69%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #229 Rocky River (4-1 D3 R10), pick: W by 4 (58%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #555 Parma (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 21 (89%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #313 Parma Heights Holy Name (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #151 Bay Village Bay (5-0 D3 R10), pick: L by 6 (64%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams
Playoff streaks & droughts

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#102 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 7-3
20.59 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected #7 seed in R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-9%, 6W-31%, 7W-37%, 8W-19%, 9W-3%

Playoff chance
75% now (bubble if 6-4), 13% home
97% with a win in next game, and 67% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 12.85 (9.62-18.20) 6% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 16.68 (12.69-23.20) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#4-out)
7W: 20.59 (17.48-27.64) 97% in, 3% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)
8W: 25.11 (22.38-30.51) 100% in, 45% home, proj. #5 (#2-#8)
9W: 30.33 (28.13-32.22) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #3 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
3.1% WWWWW 30.33 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#3, range #1-#4) Amherst Steele 23%

Worst realistic scenario
7.2% LLWLL 12.70 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)

Most likely other scenarios
15% LWWWL 19.71 pts, 95% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Anthony Wayne 32%
12% LLWWL 15.27 pts, 27% in (out, range #5-out) Central Catholic 70%
9.7% LWWWW 24.60 pts, 100% in, 34% home (#5, range #2-#8) Avon 36%
8.8% LWWLL 16.83 pts, 55% in (#8, range #5-out) Central Catholic 54%
7.4% LLWWW 20.26 pts, 97% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Anthony Wayne 25%
5.8% LWWLW 21.78 pts, 99% in, 4% home (#6, range #3-out) Avon 31%
(32% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Brunswick (0-5 D1 R1) over Elyria (0-5 D1 R2)
Week 10: Cleveland John Marshall (4-1 D1 R1) over Cleveland Rhodes (1-4 D1 R1)
Week 8: Toledo Scott (4-1 D3 R10) over Toledo Waite (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 9: Avon Lake (5-0 D2 R6) over Olmsted Falls (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 6: Toledo St John's Jesuit (3-2 D2 R6) over Toledo St Francis de Sales (3-2 D2 R6)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
22% Avon (4-1)
19% Avon Lake (5-0)
19% Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0)
18% Toledo Central Catholic (5-0)
13% Amherst Steele (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 109.5 (3-1, #230, D2 #66) 60% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home, proj. out
W3: 108.4 (2-1, #250, D2 #73) 49% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home, proj. #7
W2: 98.6 (1-1, #386, D2 #90) 7% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 97.5 (0-1, #400, D2 #96) 5% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 99.1 (0-0, #403, D2 #97) 6% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 95.9 (3-7)