Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#20 Solon (5-0) 140.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#15 of 71 in Division I
#6 of 18 in Region 1
Eitel team page
Region 1 projections
Region 1 playoff probabilities
Region 1 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 25-0 A #57 Aurora (4-1 D3 R9), pick: W by 4 (57%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 38-0 H #112 Twinsburg (3-2 D2 R5), pick: W by 15 (78%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 28-14 H #128 Stow-Munroe Falls (1-4 D1 R1), pick: W by 15 (79%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 44-21 H #288 Elyria (0-5 D1 R2), pick: W by 29 (95%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 17-9 A #50 Strongsville (3-2 D1 R1), pick: W by 4 (60%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #256 Brunswick (0-5 D1 R1), pick: W by 29 (95%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #19 Euclid (4-1 D1 R1), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #1 Mentor (5-0 D1 R1), pick: L by 19 (87%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #83 Shaker Heights (4-1 D1 R1), pick: W by 21 (90%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #81 Medina (2-3 D1 R1), pick: W by 10 (71%)

Lists on which the team appears
Fantastic 50 Rankings
Best team performances
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#42 of 71 in Division 1

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
26.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #3 seed in R1 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-2%, 7W-15%, 8W-43%, 9W-36%, 10W-5%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 6-4), 78% home
99% with a win in next game, and 99% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 19.35 (16.25-25.05) 72% in, 3% home, proj. #8 (#3-out)
7W: 23.05 (18.30-29.45) 99% in, 23% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)
8W: 26.85 (22.15-34.55) 100% in, 79% home, proj. #4 (#1-#8)
9W: 31.40 (27.80-37.80) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)
10W: 37.25 (34.20-40.15) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#2)

Best realistic scenario
4.6% WWWWW 37.25 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#2) Jackson 24%

Worst realistic scenario
4.9% WLLLW 22.00 pts, 99% in, 12% home (#6, range #3-out) Euclid 27%

Most likely other scenarios
29% WWLWW 30.85 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Jackson 18%
26% WLLWW 26.30 pts, 100% in, 68% home (#4, range #2-#8) St Edward 26%
7.9% WWLWL 27.65 pts, 100% in, 98% home (#3, range #2-#6) Austintown-Fitch 21%
7.0% WLLWL 23.05 pts, 99% in, 19% home (#5, range #2-out) Euclid 24%
5.8% WWLLW 27.00 pts, 100% in, 94% home (#3, range #2-#6) Austintown-Fitch 23%
4.2% WLWWW 32.65 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) St Ignatius 21%
(10% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Cincinnati Archbishop Moeller (4-1 D1 R4) over Lakewood St Edward (2-2 D1 R1)
Week 9: Twinsburg (3-2 D2 R5) over Hudson (1-4 D2 R5)
Week 6: Football North (via Clarkson SS) ON (3-2 D2) over Cleveland St Ignatius (3-2 D1 R1)
Week 8: Stow-Munroe Falls (1-4 D1 R1) over Hudson (1-4 D2 R5)
Week 10: Massillon Washington (5-0 D2 R7) over Canton McKinley (5-0 D1 R1)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
18% Lakewood St Edward (2-2)
18% Austintown-Fitch (4-1)
16% Euclid (4-1)
15% Cleveland St Ignatius (3-2)
12% Massillon Jackson (3-2)

Championship probabilities
5.2% Region 1 champ
0.7% Division 1 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 139.0 (4-0, #20, D1 #15) 94% (bubble if 6-4), 59% home, proj. #3
W3: 138.9 (3-0, #17, D1 #12) 93% (bubble if 6-4), 54% home, proj. #4
W2: 137.4 (2-0, #20, D1 #15) 83% (bubble if 6-4), 37% home, proj. #6
W1: 136.0 (1-0, #21, D1 #16) 85% (need 6-4), 46% home, proj. #4
W0: 133.0 (0-0, #41, D1 #28) 50% (bubble if 6-4), 19% home, proj. #8
Last year 132.1 (5-5)