Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#45 Warren G Harding (3-2) 130.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#12 of 108 in Division II
#2 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-28 H #17 Canton McKinley (5-0 D1 R1), pick: L by 11 (70%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 40-0 H #503 Cleveland Rhodes (1-4 D1 R1), pick: W by 25 (89%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 21-51 A #8 Massillon Washington (5-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 23 (89%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 49-14 A #69 Austintown-Fitch (4-1 D1 R1), pick: L by 18 (84%)
Sep 22 (W5) W 38-7 H #337 Youngstown Ursuline (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #451 Ashtabula Lakeside (1-4 D2 R5), pick: W by 29 (96%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #86 Youngstown Boardman (4-1 D2 R5), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #95 Youngstown Cardinal Mooney (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #217 Youngstown East (3-2 D2 R5), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #350 Warren Howland (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 27 (94%)

Lists on which the team appears
Fantastic 50 Rankings
Best team performances
Most improved teams
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#22 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
17.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #7 seed in R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-2%, 6W-17%, 7W-44%, 8W-37%

Playoff chance
88% now (bubble if 6-4), 25% home
88% with a win in next game, and 80% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 12.13 (9.25-16.85) 11% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 14.45 (10.65-19.80) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#4-out)
7W: 17.85 (13.70-22.40) 95% in, 7% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)
8W: 21.60 (18.15-25.50) 100% in, 59% home, proj. #4 (#2-#7)

Best realistic scenario
37% WWWWW 21.60 pts, 100% in, 59% home (#4, range #2-#7) Nordonia 30%

Worst realistic scenario
2.8% WLWLW 14.20 pts, 38% in (out, range #6-out) Archbishop Hoban 58%

Most likely other scenarios
23% WLWWW 17.10 pts, 92% in, 1% home (#7, range #3-out) Maple Heights 31%
15% WWLWW 18.45 pts, 99% in, 11% home (#6, range #3-out) Garfield Heights 26%
9.8% WLLWW 14.25 pts, 42% in (out, range #6-out) Archbishop Hoban 58%
4.4% WWWLW 18.70 pts, 99% in, 11% home (#6, range #3-out) Garfield Heights 30%
2.0% WWLLW 15.63 pts, 79% in (#7, range #5-out) Archbishop Hoban 35%
(6% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Austintown-Fitch (4-1 D1 R1) over Youngstown Boardman (4-1 D2 R5)
Week 10: Cleveland Rhodes (1-4 D1 R1) over Cleveland John Marshall (4-1 D1 R1)
Week 7: Chagrin Falls Kenston (5-0 D3 R9) over Painesville Riverside (4-1 D2 R5)
Week 7: Cleveland Rhodes (1-4 D1 R1) over Cleveland John Hay (1-4 D3 R10)
Week 8: Wadsworth (5-0 D2 R7) over Twinsburg (3-2 D2 R5)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
21% Garfield Heights (5-0)
20% Macedonia Nordonia (4-1)
19% Maple Heights (5-0)
12% Painesville Riverside (4-1)
11% Akron Archbishop Hoban (5-0)

Championship probabilities
3.3% Region 5 champ
0.3% Division 2 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 129.8 (2-2, #49, D2 #13) 85% (bubble if 6-4), 37% home, proj. #4
W3: 118.0 (1-2, #140, D2 #41) 18% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
W2: 118.6 (1-1, #137, D2 #37) 24% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home, proj. out
W1: 117.3 (0-1, #136, D2 #41) 21% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home, proj. out
W0: 120.8 (0-0, #113, D2 #30) 39% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home, proj. out
Last year 119.8 (2-7)