Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#218 Willoughby South (2-3) 110.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#61 of 108 in Division II
#16 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 28-41 A #53 Chardon Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 19 (82%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-41 H #71 Maple Heights (5-0 D2 R5), pick: L by 5 (59%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 31-7 A #412 Brecksville-Broadview Heights (0-5 D2 R5), pick: L by 4 (57%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 42-21 H #314 Madison (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 6 (62%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 29-37 A #220 Eastlake North (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 8 (67%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #255 Lyndhurst Brush (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #169 Chardon (2-3 D3 R9), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #148 Painesville Riverside (4-1 D2 R5), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #209 Mayfield (2-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #75 Chagrin Falls Kenston (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 9 (69%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#47 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
9.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-7%, 3W-25%, 4W-36%, 5W-24%, 6W-7%

Playoff chance
11% now (need 6-4), 1% home
15% with a win in next game, and 4% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 9.85 (7.00-14.45) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 13.45 (9.85-17.35) 17% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 17.30 (14.00-20.40) 83% in, 2% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.9% WWWWL 16.35 pts, 75% in (#8, range #5-out) Maple Heights 38%

Worst realistic scenario
6.9% LLLLL 3.50 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
11% WLLLL 5.90 pts, out
8.0% WLLWL 8.85 pts, out
7.9% WWLLL 9.20 pts, out
6.2% WWLWL 11.75 pts, 3% in (out, range #8-out)
5.7% LLLWL 6.50 pts, out
4.9% WLWLL 10.50 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
(47% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Lyndhurst Brush (2-3 D2 R5) over Eastlake North (2-3 D2 R5)
Week 9: Madison (2-3 D2 R5) over Eastlake North (2-3 D2 R5)
Week 10: Chardon (2-3 D3 R9) over Eastlake North (2-3 D2 R5)
Week 6: Ottawa-Glandorf (2-3 D5 R18) over Lima Shawnee (1-4 D3 R12)
Week 10: Fairfield (4-1 D1 R4) over Mason (4-1 D1 R4)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
41% Akron Archbishop Hoban (5-0)
25% Maple Heights (5-0)
15% Garfield Heights (5-0)
5% Warren G Harding (3-2)
5% Youngstown Boardman (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 114.7 (2-2, #176, D2 #54) 41% (need 6-4), 11% home, proj. #8
W3: 111.9 (1-2, #202, D2 #57) 25% (need 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
W2: 105.3 (0-2, #292, D2 #76) 4% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 108.1 (0-1, #248, D2 #69) 13% (need 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 110.1 (0-0, #251, D2 #73) 15% (need 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
Last year 104.7 (1-9)