Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#565 Akron Kenmore-Garfield (0-5) 82.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#106 of 108 in Division II
#26 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 0-33 A #335 Akron Coventry (3-2 D3 R9), pick: L by 15 (77%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 8-50 A #49 Barberton (5-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 27 (91%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 12-41 A #465 Akron Springfield (1-4 D3 R9), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Sep 15 (W4) L 6-27 H #372 Toledo Scott (4-1 D3 R10), pick: L by 10 (72%)
Sep 22 (W5) L 6-43 H #264 Akron Ellet (4-1 D2 R5), pick: L by 22 (89%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #54 Akron East (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 35 (98%)
Oct 06 (W7) H #102 Akron Buchtel (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 31 (96%)
Oct 13 (W8) H #397 Akron Firestone (0-5 D2 R5), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #338 Salem (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 25 (93%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #641 Akron North (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 10 (73%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#87 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
1.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-23%, 1W-56%, 2W-19%, 3W-2%

Best realistic scenario
5.7% LLLWW 3.90 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
23% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
47% LLLLW 1.00 pts, out
12% LLWLW 2.20 pts, out
5.9% LLWLL 1.15 pts, out
2.8% LLLWL 2.40 pts, out
(3% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 84.1 (0-4, #550, D2 #104) out
W3: 87.2 (0-3, #519, D2 #101) 1% , proj. out
W2: 91.6 (0-2, #487, D2 #99) 1% , proj. out
W1: 94.5 (0-1, #447, D2 #99) 1% , proj. out
W0: 98.7 (0-0, #408, D2 #98) 3% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 92.7 (2-8)