Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#93 Amherst Steele (5-0) 123.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#28 of 108 in Division II
#5 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 33-0 A #370 Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14), pick: W by 13 (74%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 56-0 H #415 Lakewood (0-5 D2 R6), pick: W by 20 (85%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 38-9 A #309 North Ridgeville (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 55-13 H #302 Grafton Midview (0-5 D2 R6), pick: W by 15 (79%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 45-38 H #136 Berea-Midpark (3-2 D1 R1), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #96 Olmsted Falls (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #40 Avon Lake (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 9 (70%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #241 North Olmsted (2-3 D2 R6), pick: W by 6 (65%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #37 Avon (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 10 (71%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #298 Westlake (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 23 (91%)

Lists on which the team appears
Winning & losing streaks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#94 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
23.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #4 seed in R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-9%, 7W-30%, 8W-38%, 9W-19%, 10W-3%

Playoff chance
89% now (bubble if 6-4), 36% home
99% with a win in next game, and 79% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 15.70 (12.95-20.30) 34% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 18.90 (16.15-25.60) 85% in, 2% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
8W: 23.45 (20.95-29.75) 100% in, 36% home, proj. #5 (#1-#8)
9W: 28.30 (26.30-33.05) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #3 (#1-#5)
10W: 33.35 (32.10-34.35) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #2 (#1-#3)

Best realistic scenario
3.5% WWWWW 33.35 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#3) Waite 22%

Worst realistic scenario
4.6% LLLLW 15.15 pts, 22% in (out, range #5-out) Central Catholic 66%

Most likely other scenarios
15% LLWLW 18.10 pts, 74% in (#8, range #5-out) Central Catholic 39%
14% WLWLW 22.55 pts, 100% in, 8% home (#5, range #2-#8) Avon 45%
7.8% LWWLW 23.75 pts, 100% in, 29% home (#5, range #2-#8) Avon Lake 39%
7.6% LLWWW 23.10 pts, 100% in, 46% home (#5, range #2-#8) Avon 32%
7.1% WWWLW 28.35 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#3, range #1-#5) Valley Forge 28%
6.6% WLWWW 27.75 pts, 100% in, 97% home (#3, range #1-#5) Avon 35%
(34% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Berea-Midpark (3-2 D1 R1) over Olmsted Falls (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 7: Rocky River (4-1 D3 R10) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 10: Bay Village Bay (5-0 D3 R10) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 9: Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14) over Rocky River Lutheran West (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 8: Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14) over Fairview Park Fairview (1-4 D4 R14)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
23% Avon Lake (5-0)
23% Avon (4-1)
12% Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0)
11% Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1)
11% Holland Springfield (4-1)

Championship probabilities
2.1% Region 6 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 121.8 (4-0, #105, D2 #29) 72% (need 7-3), 25% home, proj. #6
W3: 121.4 (3-0, #102, D2 #27) 73% (bubble if 6-4), 25% home, proj. #5
W2: 116.1 (2-0, #158, D2 #45) 46% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home, proj. out
W1: 114.8 (1-0, #161, D2 #45) 32% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home, proj. out
W0: 114.5 (0-0, #197, D2 #58) 20% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home, proj. out
Last year 120.6 (6-4)