Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#256 Brunswick (0-5) 107.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#61 of 71 in Division I
#16 of 18 in Region 1
Eitel team page
Region 1 projections
Region 1 playoff probabilities
Region 1 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-28 H #78 Medina Highland (4-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-13 H #155 Cleveland Heights (3-2 D1 R1), pick: W by 5 (60%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 14-27 A #222 Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6), pick: W by 13 (75%)
Sep 15 (W4) L 6-14 A #83 Shaker Heights (4-1 D1 R1), pick: L by 21 (87%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-35 H #1 Mentor (5-0 D1 R1), pick: L by 39 (99%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #20 Solon (5-0 D1 R1), pick: L by 29 (95%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #288 Elyria (0-5 D1 R2), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #19 Euclid (4-1 D1 R1), pick: L by 29 (96%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #81 Medina (2-3 D1 R1), pick: L by 20 (89%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #50 Strongsville (3-2 D1 R1), pick: L by 27 (94%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#27 of 71 in Division 1

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
0.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R1 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-36%, 1W-48%, 2W-15%, 3W-2%

Best realistic scenario
3.1% LWLLW 4.95 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
36% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
35% LWLLL 0.65 pts, out
7.7% LWLWL 3.85 pts, out
7.4% LLLWL 2.55 pts, out
2.7% LLLLW 3.65 pts, out
(8% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 106.0 (0-4, #280, D1 #64) out
W3: 103.4 (0-3, #317, D1 #67) out
W2: 112.8 (0-2, #192, D1 #59) 1% , proj. out
W1: 119.5 (0-1, #115, D1 #50) 7% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 127.3 (0-0, #70, D1 #42) 31% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home, proj. out
Last year 125.9 (5-5)