Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#349 Cuyahoga Falls (1-4) 101.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#85 of 108 in Division II
#22 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-23 H #213 Kent Roosevelt (2-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 7 (64%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 6-13 A #193 Norton (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 13 (75%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 6-48 A #49 Barberton (5-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 29 (94%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 12-35 A #112 Twinsburg (3-2 D2 R5), pick: L by 22 (89%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 44-31 H #412 Brecksville-Broadview Heights (0-5 D2 R5), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #24 Wadsworth (5-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 34 (98%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #121 Hudson (1-4 D2 R5), pick: L by 25 (93%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #76 Macedonia Nordonia (4-1 D2 R5), pick: L by 25 (93%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #128 Stow-Munroe Falls (1-4 D1 R1), pick: L by 26 (94%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #178 North Royalton (2-3 D2 R6), pick: L by 19 (86%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#41 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
3.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-48%, 2W-39%, 3W-11%, 4W-1%

Best realistic scenario
2.6% LLLWW 6.05 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
48% LLLLL 0.60 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
16% LLLLW 3.60 pts, out
9.2% LWLLL 3.05 pts, out
7.2% LLLWL 3.65 pts, out
5.5% LLWLL 5.35 pts, out
3.2% LWLLW 6.00 pts, out
(8% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 95.5 (0-4, #428, D2 #96) out
W3: 95.6 (0-3, #421, D2 #96) 1% , proj. out
W2: 91.0 (0-2, #491, D2 #100) 1% , proj. out
W1: 92.1 (0-1, #474, D2 #101) out
W0: 97.2 (0-0, #440, D2 #100) 1% , proj. out
Last year 93.3 (0-10)