Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#288 Elyria (0-5) 105.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#64 of 71 in Division I
#15 of 17 in Region 2
Eitel team page
Region 2 projections
Region 2 playoff probabilities
Region 2 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 15-42 H #40 Avon Lake (5-0 D2 R6), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-36 A #191 Bedford (1-4 D2 R5), pick: L by 9 (68%)
Sep 08 (W3) L 7-40 H #79 Lorain (3-2 D1 R2), pick: L by 16 (80%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 21-44 A #20 Solon (5-0 D1 R1), pick: L by 29 (95%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-55 H #19 Euclid (4-1 D1 R1), pick: L by 29 (95%)
Sep 29 (W6) A #83 Shaker Heights (4-1 D1 R1), pick: L by 15 (81%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #256 Brunswick (0-5 D1 R1), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #81 Medina (2-3 D1 R1), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #50 Strongsville (3-2 D1 R1), pick: L by 25 (93%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #1 Mentor (5-0 D1 R1), pick: L by 40 (99%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#11 of 71 in Division 1

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
0.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R2 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-36%, 1W-48%, 2W-15%, 3W-2%

Best realistic scenario
3.5% LWLWL 4.95 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
36% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
35% LWLLL 0.65 pts, out
5.0% WWLLL 4.40 pts, out
4.6% LLWLL 2.55 pts, out
4.6% LWWLL 3.85 pts, out
4.5% WLLLL 3.75 pts, out
3.7% LLLWL 4.30 pts, out
(3% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 105.8 (0-4, #284, D1 #65) 1% , proj. out
W3: 107.8 (0-3, #264, D1 #63) 1% , proj. out
W2: 109.4 (0-2, #230, D1 #64) 1% , proj. out
W1: 111.6 (0-1, #208, D1 #64) 1% , proj. out
W0: 119.8 (0-0, #122, D1 #55) 10% (need 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 114.9 (1-9)