Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#129 Findlay (2-3) 119.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#48 of 71 in Division I
#12 of 17 in Region 2
Eitel team page
Region 2 projections
Region 2 playoff probabilities
Region 2 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 28-34 A #31 Hilliard Bradley (4-1 D1 R3), pick: L by 19 (82%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 42-49 H #85 Upper Arlington (2-3 D1 R2), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 30-0 A #322 Toledo Start (1-4 D1 R2), pick: W by 7 (64%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 42-43 A #161 Fremont Ross (2-3 D2 R6), pick: W by 7 (66%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 28-21 A #135 Toledo St Francis de Sales (3-2 D2 R6), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #352 Oregon Clay (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 16 (83%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #133 Toledo St John's Jesuit (3-2 D2 R6), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #248 Lima Senior (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 8 (67%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #12 Toledo Central Catholic (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 25 (93%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #38 Toledo Whitmer (4-1 D1 R2), pick: L by 13 (78%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#45 of 71 in Division 1

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
11.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R2 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-1%, 3W-12%, 4W-38%, 5W-37%, 6W-11%

Playoff chance
28% now (bubble if 5-5), 3% home
29% with a win in next game, and 20% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 11.20 (7.65-18.50) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out
5W: 14.75 (11.80-21.60) 39% in, 1% home, proj. out
6W: 19.20 (16.70-25.15) 99% in, 17% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
7.6% WWWLW 19.05 pts, 99% in, 14% home (#6, range #3-out) Westerville Central 24%

Worst realistic scenario
7.5% WLLLL 8.25 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
22% WWWLL 14.15 pts, 20% in (out, range #5-out) Dublin Coffman 62%
20% WLWLL 10.55 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
9.9% WWLLL 12.30 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out)
6.6% WLWLW 15.45 pts, 50% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Dublin Coffman 45%
3.0% LWWLL 12.45 pts, 4% in (out, range #7-out)
2.9% WWLLW 16.70 pts, 80% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Dublin Coffman 35%
(21% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Maple Heights (5-0 D2 R5) over Lorain (3-2 D1 R2)
Week 10: Toledo St Francis de Sales (3-2 D2 R6) over Fremont Ross (2-3 D2 R6)
Week 9: Hilliard Darby (3-2 D1 R3) over Delaware Hayes (4-1 D1 R2)
Week 10: Grove City Central Crossing (3-2 D1 R3) over Marysville (3-2 D1 R2)
Week 9: Toledo St Francis de Sales (3-2 D2 R6) over Toledo Whitmer (4-1 D1 R2)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
29% Dublin Coffman (5-0)
23% Reynoldsburg (5-0)
14% Westerville Central (3-2)
12% Gahanna Lincoln (3-2)
9% Toledo Whitmer (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 117.7 (1-3, #148, D1 #52) 9% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 121.2 (1-2, #104, D1 #46) 27% (need 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
W2: 119.1 (0-2, #129, D1 #52) 15% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
W1: 121.3 (0-1, #95, D1 #45) 24% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home, proj. out
W0: 121.0 (0-0, #111, D1 #52) 31% (need 6-4), 9% home, proj. out
Last year 119.6 (4-6)