Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#176 Uniontown Green (1-4) 114.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#54 of 108 in Division II
#19 of 27 in Region 7
Eitel team page
Region 7 projections
Region 7 playoff probabilities
Region 7 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 26-28 H #127 Ashland (4-1 D2 R7), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 28-29 A #148 Painesville Riverside (4-1 D2 R5), pick: W by 5 (60%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 20-31 A #104 Louisville (2-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 20-34 H #17 Canton McKinley (5-0 D1 R1), pick: L by 27 (93%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 27-10 A #251 Canton GlenOak (1-4 D1 R1), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #78 Medina Highland (4-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 14 (80%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #36 Massillon Perry (5-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 20 (88%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #70 North Canton Hoover (3-2 D2 R7), pick: L by 19 (87%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #58 Massillon Jackson (3-2 D1 R1), pick: L by 13 (78%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #100 Uniontown Lake (3-2 D2 R7), pick: L by 16 (82%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#9 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
5.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R7 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-27%, 2W-41%, 3W-24%, 4W-7%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
2.2% LWLLW 9.60 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
27% LLLLL 1.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
11% LLLLW 4.65 pts, out
8.8% WLLLL 5.70 pts, out
8.3% LLLWL 5.15 pts, out
7.5% LLWLL 4.60 pts, out
5.3% LWLLL 6.00 pts, out
3.5% WLLLW 8.80 pts, out
(27% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 110.5 (0-4, #217, D2 #62) out
W3: 105.8 (0-3, #290, D2 #79) 1% , proj. out
W2: 109.4 (0-2, #229, D2 #63) 1% , proj. out
W1: 114.1 (0-1, #168, D2 #50) 1% , proj. out
W0: 119.0 (0-0, #130, D2 #37) 10% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
Last year 120.4 (4-6)