Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#248 Lima Senior (1-4) 108.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#68 of 108 in Division II
#14 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 13-56 H #29 Clayton Northmont (4-1 D1 R3), pick: L by 16 (77%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 6-26 A #163 Piqua (3-2 D3 R12), pick: W by 6 (62%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 26-14 H COF Academy OH (0-5 D2)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-56 H #12 Toledo Central Catholic (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 29 (95%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-41 A #38 Toledo Whitmer (4-1 D1 R2), pick: L by 25 (92%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #161 Fremont Ross (2-3 D2 R6), pick: L by 11 (74%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #135 Toledo St Francis de Sales (3-2 D2 R6), pick: L by 15 (81%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #129 Findlay (2-3 D1 R2), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #133 Toledo St John's Jesuit (3-2 D2 R6), pick: L by 10 (72%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #352 Oregon Clay (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 7 (66%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#10 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
5.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-9%, 2W-34%, 3W-35%, 4W-18%, 5W-4%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 12.05 (9.75-14.65) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.7% LLWWW 9.05 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
9.4% LLLLL 1.20 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
21% LLLLW 2.35 pts, out
8.2% LLWLW 5.45 pts, out
7.9% WLLLW 5.40 pts, out
6.5% LWLLW 6.00 pts, out
5.8% LLLWW 5.95 pts, out
3.9% LLWLL 4.30 pts, out
(35% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 108.5 (1-3, #248, D2 #70) 1% , proj. out
W3: 108.8 (1-2, #242, D2 #69) 1% , proj. out
W2: 108.8 (0-2, #238, D2 #65) 1% , proj. out
W1: 117.7 (0-1, #128, D2 #38) 10% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 121.2 (0-0, #106, D2 #27) 24% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home, proj. out
Last year 121.0 (4-6)