Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#239 Mansfield (2-3) 109.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#50 of 107 in Division III
#10 of 26 in Region 10
Eitel team page
Region 10 projections
Region 10 playoff probabilities
Region 10 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 21-42 A #146 Norwalk (4-1 D3 R10), pick: W by 9 (67%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 35-34 A #369 Sandusky Perkins (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 6 (61%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 31-21 H #238 Westerville North (3-2 D2 R8), pick: L by 11 (72%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 20-35 A #141 Millersburg West Holmes (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 14-38 H #71 Maple Heights (5-0 D2 R5), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #359 Lexington (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 11 (75%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #127 Ashland (4-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 9 (69%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #130 Wooster (3-2 D2 R7), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #387 Mount Vernon (2-3 D2 R7), pick: W by 13 (78%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #512 Mansfield Madison Comprehensive (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 23 (91%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#19 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
11.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R10 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-5%, 4W-24%, 5W-42%, 6W-24%, 7W-4%

Playoff chance
19% now (bubble if 6-4), 1% home
23% with a win in next game, and 9% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 8.70 (6.35-14.05) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 11.20 (8.70-17.35) 7% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 14.90 (12.05-20.10) 52% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#4-out)
7W: 18.85 (16.60-21.75) 99% in, 9% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
4.0% WWWWW 18.85 pts, 99% in, 9% home (#6, range #3-out) Glenville 26%

Worst realistic scenario
2.8% LLLLW 5.90 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
25% WLLWW 10.45 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out) Sandusky 45%
12% WLWWW 14.35 pts, 42% in (out, range #6-out) Sandusky 34%
9.1% LLLWW 8.35 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
8.6% WWLWW 14.95 pts, 52% in (#8, range #5-out) Sandusky 34%
7.5% WLLLW 8.05 pts, out
4.4% LLWWW 12.25 pts, 9% in (out, range #6-out) Sandusky 44%
(27% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Mentor Lake Catholic (3-2 D3 R9) over Parma Padua Franciscan (4-1 D3 R10)
Week 8: Westerville North (3-2 D2 R8) over Westerville South (2-3 D2 R7)
Week 7: Tiffin Columbian (4-1 D3 R10) over Clyde (3-2 D3 R10)
Week 7: Sylvania Northview (3-2 D2 R6) over Bowling Green (2-3 D3 R10)
Week 6: Chardon Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (5-0 D3 R9) over Parma Padua Franciscan (4-1 D3 R10)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
29% Sandusky (5-0)
26% Bay Village Bay (5-0)
16% Norwalk (4-1)
12% Tiffin Columbian (4-1)
10% Cleveland Glenville (3-2)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 110.9 (2-2, #211, D3 #43) 35% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home, proj. out
W3: 111.8 (2-1, #204, D3 #46) 59% (need 6-4), 20% home, proj. #7
W2: 104.0 (1-1, #315, D3 #65) 17% (need 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
W1: 106.9 (0-1, #274, D3 #61) 17% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 118.6 (0-0, #134, D3 #20) 69% (bubble if 6-4), 38% home, proj. #3
Last year 119.9 (8-3)