Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#262 Perrysburg (1-4) 107.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#71 of 108 in Division II
#15 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 21-42 A #10 Dublin Coffman (5-0 D1 R2), pick: L by 16 (77%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-19 A #133 Toledo St John's Jesuit (3-2 D2 R6), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 15-45 H #38 Toledo Whitmer (4-1 D1 R2), pick: L by 25 (91%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 6-13 A #300 Napoleon (3-2 D4 R14), pick: W by 9 (68%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 21-0 H #461 Sylvania Southview (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 9 (70%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #189 Bowling Green (2-3 D3 R10), pick: L by 10 (71%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #42 Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 27 (94%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #115 Holland Springfield (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 18 (85%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #275 Sylvania Northview (3-2 D2 R6), pick: L by 4 (60%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #495 Maumee (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 12 (76%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#28 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
6.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-3%, 2W-24%, 3W-44%, 4W-25%, 5W-5%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 14.05 (12.45-19.15) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
3.3% WLWWW 13.95 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
2.9% LLLLL 1.55 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
22% LLLWW 5.65 pts, out
18% LLLLW 2.60 pts, out
14% WLLWW 9.35 pts, out
12% WLLLW 5.95 pts, out
4.7% LLWWW 10.25 pts, out
4.4% LLWLW 7.25 pts, out
(19% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
35% Toledo Central Catholic (5-0)
23% Avon Lake (5-0)
19% Avon (4-1)
15% Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0)
4% Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 104.3 (0-4, #308, D2 #80) 1% , proj. out
W3: 111.2 (0-3, #210, D2 #60) 4% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 110.2 (0-2, #217, D2 #59) 5% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 115.7 (0-1, #149, D2 #43) 22% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
W0: 119.7 (0-0, #123, D2 #34) 42% (need 6-4), 17% home, proj. out
Last year 114.8 (4-6)