Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#459 Toledo Bowsher (1-4) 93.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#97 of 108 in Division II
#24 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 14-7 H #495 Maumee (0-5 D3 R10), pick: L by 15 (76%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-66 A #115 Holland Springfield (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 19 (83%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 6-24 H #275 Sylvania Northview (3-2 D2 R6), pick: L by 7 (64%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 14-49 A #170 Clyde (3-2 D3 R10), pick: L by 18 (85%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-40 H #73 Sandusky (5-0 D3 R10), pick: L by 27 (94%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #542 Toledo Woodward (0-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Oct 04 (W7) H #583 Toledo Rogers (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 17 (84%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #322 Toledo Start (1-4 D1 R2), pick: L by 10 (72%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #282 Toledo Waite (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 12 (75%)
Oct 25 (W10) A #372 Toledo Scott (4-1 D3 R10), pick: L by 8 (67%)

Lists on which the team appears
Playoff streaks & droughts

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#58 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 3-7
3.97 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-3%, 2W-18%, 3W-38%, 4W-30%, 5W-9%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 14.41 (13.75-15.22) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
3.4% WWLWW 11.69 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
2.8% LLLLL 1.11 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
20% WWLLL 2.81 pts, out
10% LWLLL 1.71 pts, out
10% WWLLW 7.20 pts, out
6.9% WWLWL 7.35 pts, out
6.5% WWWLL 5.58 pts, out
5.2% LWLLW 6.04 pts, out
(35% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 95.3 (1-3, #432, D2 #97) 1% , proj. out
W3: 97.0 (1-2, #399, D2 #91) 1% , proj. out
W2: 100.3 (1-1, #364, D2 #88) 5% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 102.2 (1-0, #329, D2 #88) 14% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 95.5 (0-0, #465, D2 #103) 2% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 90.0 (2-8)