Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#322 Toledo Start (1-4) 103.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#66 of 71 in Division I
#16 of 17 in Region 2
Eitel team page
Region 2 projections
Region 2 playoff probabilities
Region 2 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 24-27 A #170 Clyde (3-2 D3 R10), pick: L by 17 (79%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 23-7 A #483 Swanton (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 0-30 H #129 Findlay (2-3 D1 R2), pick: L by 7 (64%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 14-28 H #142 Tiffin Columbian (4-1 D3 R10), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 13-20 H #199 Bellevue (2-3 D4 R14), pick: L by 9 (70%)
Sep 27 (W6) A #282 Toledo Waite (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 6 (64%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #372 Toledo Scott (4-1 D3 R10), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #459 Toledo Bowsher (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 10 (72%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #583 Toledo Rogers (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 25 (W10) H #542 Toledo Woodward (0-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 20 (88%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#66 of 71 in Division 1

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 5-5
11.18 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R2 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-12%, 4W-33%, 5W-39%, 6W-14%

Playoff chance
7% now (bubble if 6-4), 1% home
18% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 8.01 (5.38-14.02) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 11.18 (9.72-16.03) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out
6W: 15.32 (14.71-17.04) 44% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
14% WWWWW 15.32 pts, 44% in (out, range #5-out) Dublin Coffman 55%

Worst realistic scenario
4.8% LLLWW 4.30 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
21% LWWWW 10.78 pts, out
15% LLWWW 6.64 pts, out
10% WLWWW 11.29 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
6.5% LWLWW 8.51 pts, out
4.2% WWLWW 13.10 pts, 6% in (out, range #7-out)
3.5% WLLWW 8.97 pts, out
(21% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Maple Heights (5-0 D2 R5) over Lorain (3-2 D1 R2)
Week 8: Hilliard Bradley (4-1 D1 R3) over Dublin Jerome (1-4 D1 R2)
Week 7: Swanton (2-3 D5 R18) over Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14)
Week 7: Toledo St John's Jesuit (3-2 D2 R6) over Findlay (2-3 D1 R2)
Week 9: Hilliard Darby (3-2 D1 R3) over Delaware Hayes (4-1 D1 R2)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
56% Dublin Coffman (5-0)
27% Reynoldsburg (5-0)
5% Gahanna Lincoln (3-2)
5% Westerville Central (3-2)
4% Toledo Whitmer (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 104.0 (1-3, #316, D1 #66) 9% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 106.0 (1-2, #287, D1 #66) 19% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 110.6 (1-1, #212, D1 #62) 36% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home, proj. out
W1: 108.0 (0-1, #250, D1 #65) 14% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 108.3 (0-0, #269, D1 #66) 17% (need 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 105.8 (7-3)