Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#24 Wadsworth (5-0) 137.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#5 of 108 in Division II
#2 of 27 in Region 7
Eitel team page
Region 7 projections
Region 7 playoff probabilities
Region 7 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 63-0 H #397 Akron Firestone (0-5 D2 R5), pick: W by 27 (90%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 37-31 A #130 Wooster (3-2 D2 R7), pick: W by 13 (75%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 28-7 H #81 Medina (2-3 D1 R1), pick: L by 6 (62%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 35-25 H #76 Macedonia Nordonia (4-1 D2 R5), pick: W by 11 (72%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 48-21 A #128 Stow-Munroe Falls (1-4 D1 R1), pick: W by 13 (77%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #349 Cuyahoga Falls (1-4 D2 R5), pick: W by 34 (98%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #178 North Royalton (2-3 D2 R6), pick: W by 21 (89%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #112 Twinsburg (3-2 D2 R5), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #412 Brecksville-Broadview Heights (0-5 D2 R5), pick: W by 29 (95%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #121 Hudson (1-4 D2 R5), pick: W by 14 (80%)

Lists on which the team appears
Fantastic 50 Rankings
Winning & losing streaks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#25 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 10-0
29.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #2 seed in R7 playoffs

Win probabilities:
8W-5%, 9W-33%, 10W-62%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 8-2), 87% home
99% with a win in next game, and 98% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
8W: 23.40 (19.70-28.15) 87% in, 18% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
9W: 26.75 (23.15-31.35) 99% in, 74% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)
10W: 29.90 (26.80-32.55) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
62% WWWWW 29.90 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) New Albany 13%

Worst realistic scenario
2.4% WWLWL 23.25 pts, 84% in, 10% home (#7, range #2-out) Massillon Washington 19%

Most likely other scenarios
16% WWLWW 26.20 pts, 99% in, 64% home (#4, range #1-out) New Albany 18%
9.4% WWWWL 26.95 pts, 100% in, 86% home (#3, range #1-#8) New Albany 16%
5.4% WLWWW 26.85 pts, 100% in, 77% home (#3, range #1-#8) New Albany 15%
(5% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Aurora (4-1 D3 R9) over Barberton (5-0 D2 R7)
Week 10: Wooster (3-2 D2 R7) over Ashland (4-1 D2 R7)
Week 6: Steubenville (4-1 D4 R13) over Dover (4-1 D2 R7)
Week 7: Medina (2-3 D1 R1) over Strongsville (3-2 D1 R1)
Week 10: Akron Firestone (0-5 D2 R5) over Akron Ellet (4-1 D2 R5)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
14% New Albany (3-2)
12% Dover (4-1)
11% Dresden Tri-Valley (5-0)
9% Massillon Perry (5-0)
9% Pataskala Licking Heights (4-1)

Championship probabilities
21% Region 7 champ
2.2% Division 2 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 135.7 (4-0, #26, D2 #5) 97% (bubble if 7-3), 80% home, proj. #3
W3: 134.7 (3-0, #27, D2 #6) 91% (bubble if 7-3), 66% home, proj. #2
W2: 128.9 (2-0, #47, D2 #9) 63% (bubble if 7-3), 29% home, proj. #8
W1: 130.7 (1-0, #41, D2 #9) 69% (need 7-3), 37% home, proj. #7
W0: 132.6 (0-0, #42, D2 #8) 63% (bubble if 7-3), 36% home, proj. #5
Last year 140.4 (11-1)