Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#463 Fairborn (0-5) 93.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#99 of 108 in Division II
#24 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 0-31 A #295 New Carlisle Tecumseh (3-2 D2 R8), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-42 H #113 Bellbrook (5-0 D3 R11), pick: L by 20 (84%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 19-57 H #280 Beavercreek (1-4 D1 R3), pick: L by 11 (73%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 14-29 A #163 Piqua (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 26 (92%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 12-40 H #145 Sidney (3-2 D2 R8), pick: L by 22 (90%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #540 Riverside Stebbins (0-5 D2 R8), pick: W by 7 (65%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #16 Trotwood-Madison (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 37 (99%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #65 Springboro (2-3 D1 R3), pick: L by 29 (95%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #527 West Carrollton (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 11 (74%)
Oct 25 (W10) A #162 Xenia (3-2 D2 R8), pick: L by 26 (94%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#49 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
1.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-10%, 1W-41%, 2W-45%, 3W-4%

Best realistic scenario
3.2% WLLWW 5.70 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
9.7% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
41% WLLWL 2.20 pts, out
21% LLLWL 1.60 pts, out
19% WLLLL 0.60 pts, out
(6% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 93.6 (0-4, #450, D2 #99) out
W3: 91.4 (0-3, #478, D2 #99) out
W2: 93.5 (0-2, #452, D2 #98) out
W1: 96.6 (0-1, #414, D2 #97) 1% , proj. out
W0: 105.9 (0-0, #300, D2 #83) 2% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 108.1 (4-6)