Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#64 Lewis Center Olentangy (1-4) 127.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#16 of 108 in Division II
#5 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-17 H #46 Hilliard Darby (3-2 D1 R3), pick: W by 5 (59%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-24 A #9 Miamisburg (5-0 D1 R3), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 53-33 H #115 Holland Springfield (4-1 D2 R6), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 16-22 A #10 Dublin Coffman (5-0 D1 R2), pick: L by 17 (83%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 18-30 H #52 New Albany (3-2 D2 R7), pick: W by 5 (62%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #156 Westerville South (2-3 D2 R7), pick: W by 14 (80%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #120 Lewis Center Olentangy Orange (3-2 D1 R2), pick: W by 9 (70%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #55 Powell Olentangy Liberty (2-3 D1 R2), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #238 Westerville North (3-2 D2 R8), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #51 Westerville Central (3-2 D1 R2), pick: L by 4 (59%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#1 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
15.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-5%, 3W-21%, 4W-37%, 5W-28%, 6W-8%

Playoff chance
11% now (need 6-4), 1% home
13% with a win in next game, and 3% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 15.15 (12.15-18.40) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 18.85 (16.45-21.40) 13% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 22.65 (20.85-23.40) 89% in, 3% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
7.7% WWWWW 22.65 pts, 89% in, 3% home (#7, range #3-out) Kings 23%

Worst realistic scenario
2.8% LLLWL 8.30 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
14% WWLWL 14.55 pts, out
11% WWWWL 18.35 pts, 8% in (out, range #6-out) Kings 52%
9.9% WWLWW 18.85 pts, 13% in (out, range #5-out) Kings 52%
8.1% WLLWL 10.80 pts, out
6.0% WLWWL 14.65 pts, out
5.6% WLLWW 15.10 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
(35% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Indianapolis Bishop Chatard IN (6-0 D4) over Cincinnati Winton Woods (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 6: Milford (3-2 D1 R4) over Cincinnati Anderson (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 6: Hilliard Bradley (4-1 D1 R3) over Dublin Scioto (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 6: Cincinnati Archbishop Moeller (4-1 D1 R4) over Cincinnati La Salle (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 10: Hilliard Darby (3-2 D1 R3) over Dublin Scioto (4-1 D2 R8)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
32% Kings Mills Kings (4-1)
18% Trenton Edgewood (5-0)
15% Troy (4-1)
10% Cincinnati La Salle (4-1)
7% Chillicothe (4-1)

Championship probabilities
0.7% Region 8 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 129.4 (1-3, #50, D2 #14) 34% (need 6-4), 7% home, proj. out
W3: 127.0 (1-2, #64, D2 #15) 38% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home, proj. #8
W2: 122.7 (0-2, #91, D1 #45) 32% (need 5-5), 9% home, proj. #8
W1: 128.1 (0-1, #53, D1 #37) 51% (bubble if 5-5), 23% home, proj. out
W0: 134.4 (0-0, #32, D1 #22) 79% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home, proj. #3
Last year 136.1 (8-4)