Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#453 Marion Harding (1-4) 93.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#96 of 108 in Division II
#23 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 21-12 H #387 Mount Vernon (2-3 D2 R7), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-28 H #240 Plain City Jonathan Alder (3-2 D4 R16), pick: W by 6 (61%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 0-21 A #392 Newark (1-4 D1 R2), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-28 A #346 Ontario (3-2 D4 R14), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-34 H #152 Marion Pleasant (5-0 D5 R18), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #389 Galion (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #202 Richwood North Union (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 16 (82%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #390 Delaware Buckeye Valley (1-4 D3 R11), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #388 Caledonia River Valley (2-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #63 Bellville Clear Fork (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 28 (95%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#93 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
4.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-20%, 2W-41%, 3W-29%, 4W-9%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
4.7% WLWWL 8.70 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
20% LLLLL 2.35 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
15% LLWLL 4.35 pts, out
11% LLLWL 4.45 pts, out
11% WLLLL 5.10 pts, out
8.7% LLWWL 6.35 pts, out
8.4% WLWLL 6.70 pts, out
6.5% WLLWL 6.85 pts, out
(14% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 94.6 (1-3, #444, D2 #98) 1% , proj. out
W3: 99.9 (1-2, #366, D2 #87) 4% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 106.2 (1-1, #278, D2 #74) 15% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 111.5 (1-0, #209, D2 #59) 54% (need 7-3), 14% home, proj. #6
W0: 109.1 (0-0, #261, D2 #76) 23% (need 7-3), 5% home, proj. out
Last year 110.5 (6-4)