Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#392 Newark (1-4) 98.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#68 of 71 in Division I
#17 of 17 in Region 2
Eitel team page
Region 2 projections
Region 2 playoff probabilities
Region 2 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 27-32 H #233 Zanesville (3-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 27-41 A #387 Mount Vernon (2-3 D2 R7), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 21-0 H #453 Marion Harding (1-4 D2 R6), pick: L by 9 (69%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-62 A #80 Lancaster (2-3 D1 R3), pick: L by 20 (87%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-30 H #158 Grove City Central Crossing (3-2 D1 R3), pick: L by 16 (81%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #254 Sunbury Big Walnut (1-4 D2 R8), pick: L by 11 (73%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #52 New Albany (3-2 D2 R7), pick: L by 24 (92%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #224 Groveport Madison (2-3 D1 R3), pick: L by 13 (77%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #165 Canal Winchester (4-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 14 (80%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #450 Columbus Franklin Heights (1-4 D2 R8), pick: W by 2 (54%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#69 of 71 in Division 1

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
3.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R2 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-20%, 2W-44%, 3W-28%, 4W-7%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 10.05 (7.15-15.90) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.1% WLLWW 10.10 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
20% LLLLL 1.75 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
26% LLLLW 3.45 pts, out
9.5% WLLLW 5.35 pts, out
7.7% WLLLL 4.05 pts, out
6.6% LLWLW 6.35 pts, out
5.5% LLLWW 7.80 pts, out
5.4% LLWLL 4.75 pts, out
(17% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
44% Dublin Coffman (5-0)
38% Reynoldsburg (5-0)
6% Delaware Hayes (4-1)
6% Westerville Central (3-2)
6% Powell Olentangy Liberty (2-3)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 99.1 (1-3, #373, D1 #68) 1% , proj. out
W3: 103.1 (1-2, #322, D1 #68) 3% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 95.3 (0-2, #430, D1 #69) 1% , proj. out
W1: 100.1 (0-1, #366, D1 #69) 1% , proj. out
W0: 103.9 (0-0, #329, D1 #68) 4% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 97.1 (1-9)