Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#201 Thomas Worthington (2-3) 112.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#56 of 71 in Division I
#14 of 17 in Region 2
Eitel team page
Region 2 projections
Region 2 playoff probabilities
Region 2 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 34-21 H #165 Canal Winchester (4-1 D2 R7), pick: W by 4 (57%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 30-35 H #238 Westerville North (3-2 D2 R8), pick: W by 6 (62%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 17-27 A #156 Westerville South (2-3 D2 R7), pick: L by 7 (64%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 25-20 A #286 Columbus Worthington Kilbourne (1-4 D2 R7), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 15-52 H #31 Hilliard Bradley (4-1 D1 R3), pick: L by 20 (87%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #88 Dublin Jerome (1-4 D1 R2), pick: L by 15 (80%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #46 Hilliard Darby (3-2 D1 R3), pick: L by 19 (86%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #137 Delaware Hayes (4-1 D1 R2), pick: L by 9 (70%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #82 Dublin Scioto (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #456 Delaware Olentangy Berlin OH (1-4 D3), pick: W by 18 (85%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#58 of 71 in Division 1

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
12.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R2 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-4%, 3W-35%, 4W-41%, 5W-17%, 6W-3%

Playoff chance
14% now (bubble if 5-5), 1% home
29% with a win in next game, and 9% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 12.05 (8.25-17.20) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 15.75 (11.95-20.85) 57% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#3-out)
6W: 19.40 (16.80-23.15) 99% in, 16% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
4.5% LLWWW 16.35 pts, 73% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Reynoldsburg 38%

Worst realistic scenario
4.1% LLLLL 6.65 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
30% LLLLW 7.80 pts, out
19% LLWLW 12.05 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
8.3% WLLLW 10.80 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
7.6% LLLWW 12.65 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out)
5.6% WLWLW 14.50 pts, 41% in (out, range #5-out) Dublin Coffman 53%
3.7% LWLLW 12.15 pts, 2% in (out, range #8-out)
(18% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Maple Heights (5-0 D2 R5) over Lorain (3-2 D1 R2)
Week 7: Canal Winchester (4-1 D2 R7) over Groveport Madison (2-3 D1 R3)
Week 10: Grove City Central Crossing (3-2 D1 R3) over Marysville (3-2 D1 R2)
Week 9: Middlefield Cardinal (1-4 D6 R21) over Richmond Heights (2-3 D7 R25)
Week 7: Reynoldsburg (5-0 D1 R2) over Gahanna Lincoln (3-2 D1 R2)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
36% Dublin Coffman (5-0)
29% Reynoldsburg (5-0)
12% Westerville Central (3-2)
9% Toledo Whitmer (4-1)
8% Gahanna Lincoln (3-2)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 111.8 (2-2, #204, D1 #57) 16% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home, proj. out
W3: 110.1 (1-2, #222, D1 #60) 6% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 112.8 (1-1, #191, D1 #58) 9% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 115.3 (1-0, #155, D1 #55) 16% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 112.9 (0-0, #213, D1 #63) 7% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 114.4 (4-6)