Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#162 Xenia (3-2) 116.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#51 of 108 in Division II
#14 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 41-14 A #280 Beavercreek (1-4 D1 R3), pick: L by 20 (83%)
Sep 01 (W2) L 14-21 H #61 Troy (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 35-26 H #246 Franklin (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 12 (74%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 35-0 H #362 Greenville (3-2 D3 R12), pick: W by 14 (78%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-13 A #160 Vandalia Butler (3-2 D3 R12), pick: W by 4 (60%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #23 Springfield (5-0 D1 R3), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #540 Riverside Stebbins (0-5 D2 R8), pick: W by 31 (97%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #527 West Carrollton (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 30 (96%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #16 Trotwood-Madison (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 25 (W10) H #463 Fairborn (0-5 D2 R8), pick: W by 26 (94%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams
Biggest upsets
Playoff streaks & droughts

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#60 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
11.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-1%, 5W-12%, 6W-75%, 7W-13%

Playoff chance
1% now
4% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 16.10 (13.45-22.70) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
7.9% WWWLW 16.55 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)

Worst realistic scenario
3.7% LWLLW 9.45 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
73% LWWLW 11.00 pts, out
5.8% LWWLL 9.45 pts, out
4.7% LWWWW 15.25 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
2.2% LLWLW 9.90 pts, out
(3% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
39% Kings Mills Kings (4-1)
14% Troy (4-1)
14% Trenton Edgewood (5-0)
11% Morrow Little Miami (5-0)
8% Cincinnati La Salle (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 120.1 (3-1, #123, D2 #35) 4% , proj. out
W3: 118.9 (2-1, #130, D2 #36) 4% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 116.2 (1-1, #156, D2 #44) 2% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 120.7 (1-0, #104, D2 #30) 31% (need 8-2), 7% home, proj. out
W0: 109.5 (0-0, #254, D2 #74) 4% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 106.3 (2-8)