Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#13 Cincinnati La Salle (4-1) 142.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#4 of 108 in Division II
#1 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 0-23 A #3 Cincinnati Colerain (5-0 D1 R4), pick: L by 9 (66%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 34-21 H #33 Mason (4-1 D1 R4), pick: W by 2 (53%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 13-12 H Lutheran North MO (2-3 D5)
Sep 13 (W4) W 37-7 A Scott County KY (5-1 D1)
Sep 21 (W5) W 52-6 H Royal Imperial Collegiate ON (0-4 D7)
Sep 28 (W6) H #7 Cincinnati Archbishop Moeller (4-1 D1 R4), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #11 Cincinnati St Xavier (2-3 D1 R4), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Oct 12 (W8) H International School of Broward FL, [W by 47, 99%]
Oct 19 (W9) H Trinity Catholic MO, [W by 16, 82%]
Oct 26 (W10) A #14 Cincinnati Elder (3-2 D1 R4), pick: L by 2 (54%)

Lists on which the team appears
Fantastic 50 Rankings
Key games this week
Best team performances
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#8 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 98
Projected record 7-3
23.44 Harbin points (divisor 98)
Projected #4 seed in R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-3%, 6W-20%, 7W-39%, 8W-30%, 9W-7%

Playoff chance
85% now (bubble if 6-4), 43% home
98% with a win in next game, and 75% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 15.82 (12.71-17.96) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 19.53 (15.91-23.20) 46% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 23.44 (18.24-28.40) 98% in, 24% home, proj. #6 (#1-out)
8W: 27.41 (22.72-31.75) 100% in, 89% home, proj. #3 (#1-#8)
9W: 31.58 (27.09-35.26) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
7.3% WWWWW 31.58 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#4) Chillicothe 13%

Worst realistic scenario
3.5% LLWLL 15.82 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)

Most likely other scenarios
12% LWWWL 22.83 pts, 96% in, 13% home (#6, range #2-out) Troy 19%
11% LLWWL 19.38 pts, 43% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Kings 42%
11% LWWWW 26.75 pts, 100% in, 84% home (#3, range #1-#8) Chillicothe 15%
11% LLWWW 23.24 pts, 98% in, 22% home (#6, range #2-out) Troy 18%
8.9% WWWWL 27.57 pts, 100% in, 90% home (#3, range #1-#7) Chillicothe 16%
8.2% WLWWL 24.11 pts, 99% in, 37% home (#5, range #1-out) Troy 17%
(27% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Lutheran North MO (2-3 D5) over
Week 8: Scott County KY (5-1 D1) over
Week 9: Mason (4-1 D1 R4) over Cincinnati Princeton (4-1 D1 R4)
Week 6: Indianapolis Bishop Chatard IN (6-0 D4) over Cincinnati Winton Woods (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 10: Mason (4-1 D1 R4) over Fairfield (4-1 D1 R4)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
15% Troy (4-1)
14% Chillicothe (4-1)
12% Trenton Edgewood (5-0)
11% Morrow Little Miami (5-0)
10% Kings Mills Kings (4-1)

Championship probabilities
43% Region 8 champ
7.8% Division 2 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 142.8 (3-1, #12, D2 #4) 83% (bubble if 6-4), 42% home, proj. #4
W3: 142.0 (2-1, #13, D2 #4) 81% (bubble if 6-4), 44% home, proj. #5
W2: 142.4 (1-1, #12, D2 #3) 83% (need 6-4), 48% home, proj. #4
W1: 137.3 (0-1, #18, D2 #4) 54% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home, proj. out
W0: 143.4 (0-0, #10, D2 #2) 82% (bubble if 5-5), 59% home, proj. #1
Last year 148.0 (10-3)