Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#126 Harrison (2-3) 119.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#37 of 108 in Division II
#10 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 42-19 H #160 Vandalia Butler (3-2 D3 R12), pick: W by 8 (66%)
Sep 01 (W2) L 17-49 H East Central IN (5-1 D2)
Sep 07 (W3) L 3-35 A #89 Cincinnati Anderson (4-1 D2 R8), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 49-14 A #351 Hamilton Ross (2-3 D3 R12), pick: W by 17 (82%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 35-42 H #68 Trenton Edgewood (5-0 D2 R8), pick: L by 4 (60%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #427 Oxford Talawanda (2-3 D2 R8), pick: W by 20 (88%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #131 Morrow Little Miami (5-0 D2 R8), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Oct 12 (W8) H Franklin County IN, [W by 35, 98%]
Oct 19 (W9) H #205 Cincinnati Mount Healthy (2-3 D3 R12), pick: W by 11 (74%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #344 Cincinnati Northwest (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 17 (84%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#24 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
16.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-4%, 5W-23%, 6W-45%, 7W-27%

Playoff chance
18% now (bubble if 7-3), 1% home
20% with a win in next game, and 6% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 16.75 (13.25-22.05) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 20.80 (17.90-23.80) 59% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
28% WWWWW 20.80 pts, 59% in, 1% home (#8, range #2-out) Kings 36%

Worst realistic scenario
2.2% WLWLL 10.50 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
24% WLWWW 15.60 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
13% WWWLW 17.55 pts, 5% in (out, range #5-out) Kings 58%
10% WLWLW 12.35 pts, out
5.5% WWWWL 18.55 pts, 14% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Kings 51%
5.4% WLWWL 13.35 pts, out
3.1% LWWWW 18.33 pts, 19% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Kings 48%
(10% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Vandalia Butler (3-2 D3 R12) over Sidney (3-2 D2 R8)
Week 6: Milford (3-2 D1 R4) over Cincinnati Anderson (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 10: Vandalia Butler (3-2 D3 R12) over Tipp City Tippecanoe (3-2 D3 R12)
Week 7: Vandalia Butler (3-2 D3 R12) over Troy (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 6: Hilliard Bradley (4-1 D1 R3) over Dublin Scioto (4-1 D2 R8)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
38% Kings Mills Kings (4-1)
17% Trenton Edgewood (5-0)
14% Troy (4-1)
9% Cincinnati La Salle (4-1)
6% Chillicothe (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 119.5 (2-2, #130, D2 #37) 29% (bubble if 7-3), 6% home, proj. out
W3: 120.1 (1-2, #118, D2 #32) 40% (need 7-3), 8% home, proj. out
W2: 124.9 (1-1, #71, D2 #17) 73% (need 7-3), 32% home, proj. #6
W1: 122.4 (1-0, #89, D2 #24) 89% (bubble if 6-4), 65% home, proj. #1
W0: 120.2 (0-0, #119, D2 #33) 77% (bubble if 6-4), 45% home, proj. #4
Last year 122.7 (8-3)