Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#105 Lebanon (3-2) 121.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#43 of 71 in Division I
#11 of 18 in Region 4
Eitel team page
Region 4 projections
Region 4 playoff probabilities
Region 4 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-17 A #39 Kings Mills Kings (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 15-13 H #228 Loveland (1-4 D2 R8), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 7-3 A #175 Cincinnati West Clermont (2-3 D1 R4), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 41-10 H #280 Beavercreek (1-4 D1 R3), pick: W by 16 (81%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-28 A #23 Springfield (5-0 D1 R3), pick: L by 13 (77%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #29 Clayton Northmont (4-1 D1 R3), pick: L by 18 (85%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #134 Centerville (0-5 D1 R3), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #9 Miamisburg (5-0 D1 R3), pick: L by 14 (80%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #540 Riverside Stebbins (0-5 D2 R8), pick: W by 32 (97%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #65 Springboro (2-3 D1 R3), pick: W by 1 (53%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#44 of 71 in Division 1

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
10.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R4 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-18%, 5W-43%, 6W-31%, 7W-8%

Playoff chance
13% now (need 7-3), 1% home
40% with a win in next game, and 7% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.55 (7.50-17.45) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 13.80 (10.65-21.70) 18% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 18.20 (15.00-24.30) 85% in, 5% home, proj. #7 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.2% LWWWW 18.85 pts, 93% in, 6% home (#6, range #3-out) Archbishop Moeller 23%

Worst realistic scenario
17% LLLWL 8.10 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
25% LWLWL 9.45 pts, out
17% LWLWW 13.15 pts, 4% in (out, range #5-out) Colerain 62%
11% LLLWW 11.40 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
6.1% WWLWL 14.25 pts, 13% in (out, range #5-out) Colerain 65%
4.5% WLLWL 12.45 pts, 4% in (out, range #7-out)
4.3% WWLWW 17.50 pts, 78% in, 1% home (#7, range #3-out) Colerain 32%
(14% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Cincinnati La Salle (4-1 D2 R8) over Cincinnati St Xavier (2-3 D1 R4)
Week 10: Riverside Stebbins (0-5 D2 R8) over West Carrollton (1-4 D3 R12)
Week 6: Cincinnati Anderson (4-1 D2 R8) over Milford (3-2 D1 R4)
Week 8: Loveland (1-4 D2 R8) over Cincinnati Walnut Hills (1-4 D1 R4)
Week 9: Cincinnati West Clermont (2-3 D1 R4) over Milford (3-2 D1 R4)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
36% Cincinnati Colerain (5-0)
20% Cincinnati Archbishop Moeller (4-1)
13% Cincinnati Elder (3-2)
11% Fairfield (4-1)
10% Mason (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 123.8 (3-1, #88, D1 #40) 29% (need 7-3), 6% home, proj. out
W3: 122.6 (2-1, #91, D1 #41) 30% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home, proj. #8
W2: 120.2 (1-1, #116, D1 #48) 15% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 117.5 (0-1, #134, D1 #52) 8% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 122.3 (0-0, #99, D1 #50) 26% (need 6-4), 6% home, proj. out
Last year 119.5 (3-7)