Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#228 Loveland (1-4) 110.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#65 of 108 in Division II
#16 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 13-33 A #48 Cincinnati Sycamore (3-2 D1 R4), pick: L by 21 (84%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 13-15 A #105 Lebanon (3-2 D1 R4), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 14-49 H #9 Miamisburg (5-0 D1 R3), pick: L by 18 (83%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 24-0 H #513 Cincinnati Withrow (0-5 D2 R8), pick: W by 25 (92%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 21-71 A #111 Milford (3-2 D1 R4), pick: L by 10 (72%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #175 Cincinnati West Clermont (2-3 D1 R4), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #117 Cincinnati Turpin (3-2 D2 R8), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #270 Cincinnati Walnut Hills (1-4 D1 R4), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #39 Kings Mills Kings (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 20 (88%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #89 Cincinnati Anderson (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 10 (73%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#11 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
7.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-14%, 2W-36%, 3W-33%, 4W-14%, 5W-3%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 15.45 (13.95-19.25) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.2% LWWLW 12.15 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
14% LLLLL 1.25 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
17% LLWLL 3.05 pts, out
8.9% WLWLL 6.20 pts, out
7.7% WLLLL 4.40 pts, out
7.3% LWWLL 7.25 pts, out
5.6% LWLLL 5.45 pts, out
5.0% LLWLW 7.95 pts, out
(33% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
25% Troy (4-1)
25% Kings Mills Kings (4-1)
17% Cincinnati La Salle (4-1)
17% Trenton Edgewood (5-0)
8% Morrow Little Miami (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 112.3 (1-3, #201, D2 #61) 1% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 112.1 (0-3, #201, D2 #56) 1% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 111.4 (0-2, #204, D2 #58) 3% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 112.5 (0-1, #193, D2 #54) 6% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 115.2 (0-0, #186, D2 #54) 16% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
Last year 109.4 (1-9)