Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#2 Akron Archbishop Hoban (5-0) 154.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#1 of 108 in Division II
#1 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 25 (W1) W 21-14 A #6 Cleveland St Ignatius (3-2 D1 R1), pick: L by 6 (61%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 42-13 A #95 Youngstown Cardinal Mooney (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 21 (86%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 47-28 A #21 Huber Heights Wayne (3-2 D1 R3), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 56-28 H #337 Youngstown Ursuline (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 40 (99%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 35-3 A #27 Akron St Vincent-St Mary (3-2 D3 R9), pick: W by 12 (76%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #114 Cleveland Benedictine (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 30 (96%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #125 Mentor Lake Catholic (3-2 D3 R9), pick: W by 27 (95%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #153 Parma Padua Franciscan (4-1 D3 R10), pick: W by 28 (95%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #317 Cuyahoga Falls Walsh Jesuit (0-5 D2 R5), pick: W by 34 (98%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #53 Chardon Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (5-0 D3 R9), pick: W by 24 (92%)

Lists on which the team appears
Fantastic 50 Rankings
Winning & losing streaks
Best team performances
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#3 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 10-0
33.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #1 seed in R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
9W-10%, 10W-90%

Playoff chance
100% now (need 9-1), 99% home
100% with a win in next game, and 100% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
9W: 29.30 (24.55-35.05) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#3)
10W: 33.65 (29.45-38.50) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#2)

Best realistic scenario
90% WWWWW 33.65 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#2) Twinsburg 12%

Worst realistic scenario
5.3% WWWWL 28.55 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#3) Twinsburg 12%

Most likely other scenarios
1.6% WWLWW 29.85 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#2) Warren G Harding 15%
1.5% LWWWW 30.70 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#2) Boardman 14%
1.5% WLWWW 30.20 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#2) North 13%

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
12% Twinsburg (3-2)
10% Painesville Riverside (4-1)
10% Warren G Harding (3-2)
9% Eastlake North (2-3)
9% Youngstown Boardman (4-1)

Championship probabilities
89% Region 5 champ
59% Division 2 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 151.1 (4-0, #4, D2 #1) in and 99% home, proj. #1
W3: 153.7 (3-0, #4, D2 #1) in and 99% home, proj. #1
W2: 148.1 (2-0, #4, D2 #1) 99% (need 7-3), 98% home, proj. #1
W1: 149.4 (1-0, #4, D2 #1) 99% (need 6-4), 98% home, proj. #1
W0: 146.6 (0-0, #7, D2 #1) 96% (bubble if 5-5), 84% home, proj. #1
Last year 159.1 (14-1)