Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#54 Akron East (4-1) 129.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#7 of 107 in Division III
#4 of 28 in Region 9
Eitel team page
Region 9 projections
Region 9 playoff probabilities
Region 9 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 14-13 A #58 Massillon Jackson (3-2 D1 R1), pick: L by 15 (76%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 48-0 A #465 Akron Springfield (1-4 D3 R9), pick: W by 23 (88%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 24-17 A #70 North Canton Hoover (3-2 D2 R7), pick: L by 6 (61%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 20-24 A #74 Dover (4-1 D2 R7), pick: W by 8 (67%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 39-14 A #125 Mentor Lake Catholic (3-2 D3 R9), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #565 Akron Kenmore-Garfield (0-5 D2 R5), pick: W by 35 (98%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #397 Akron Firestone (0-5 D2 R5), pick: W by 25 (93%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #264 Akron Ellet (4-1 D2 R5), pick: W by 17 (83%)
Oct 20 (W9) H #641 Akron North (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 41 (99%)
Oct 27 (W10) A #102 Akron Buchtel (3-2 D4 R13), pick: W by 3 (57%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best team performances
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#6 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
25.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #4 seed in R9 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-6%, 8W-41%, 9W-53%

Playoff chance
85% now (need 8-2), 35% home
86% with a win in next game

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 18.40 (14.45-23.55) 15% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 21.75 (17.70-26.75) 79% in, 6% home, proj. #7 (#1-out)
9W: 25.10 (20.70-29.65) 99% in, 63% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)

Best realistic scenario
53% WWWWW 25.10 pts, 99% in, 63% home (#4, range #1-out) Buckeye 19%

Worst realistic scenario
4.3% WWLWL 17.90 pts, 6% in (out, range #6-out) Aurora 35%

Most likely other scenarios
32% WWWWL 21.75 pts, 79% in, 6% home (#7, range #2-out) Canfield 21%
6.9% WWLWW 21.30 pts, 72% in, 3% home (#8, range #3-out) Aurora 22%
2.2% WLWWW 23.27 pts, 95% in, 24% home (#6, range #1-out) Aurora 18%
1.6% WLWWL 19.90 pts, 34% in, 1% home (out, range #3-out) Canfield 26%
0.3% WLLWW 19.60 pts, 23% in (out, range #7-out)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Mentor Lake Catholic (3-2 D3 R9) over Cleveland Benedictine (2-3 D2 R5)
Week 9: Ashland (4-1 D2 R7) over Millersburg West Holmes (5-0 D3 R9)
Week 7: Akron Springfield (1-4 D3 R9) over Lodi Cloverleaf (2-3 D3 R9)
Week 7: North Canton Hoover (3-2 D2 R7) over Uniontown Lake (3-2 D2 R7)
Week 10: Mentor Lake Catholic (3-2 D3 R9) over Parma Padua Franciscan (4-1 D3 R10)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
16% Medina Buckeye (4-1)
14% Chagrin Falls Kenston (5-0)
14% Canfield (5-0)
13% Aurora (4-1)
12% Alliance Marlington (4-1)

Championship probabilities
16% Region 9 champ
3.8% Division 3 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 125.5 (3-1, #75, D3 #11) 63% (need 8-2), 21% home, proj. #6
W3: 130.3 (3-0, #48, D3 #4) 89% (need 8-2), 64% home, proj. #1
W2: 124.8 (2-0, #73, D3 #11) 62% (need 8-2), 31% home, proj. #5
W1: 122.7 (1-0, #86, D3 #12) 64% (need 7-3), 36% home, proj. #4
W0: 116.7 (0-0, #165, D3 #35) 22% (bubble if 7-3), 6% home, proj. out
Last year 123.7 (7-3)