Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#264 Akron Ellet (4-1) 107.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#72 of 108 in Division II
#19 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 35-0 H #465 Akron Springfield (1-4 D3 R9), pick: W by 4 (58%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-20 A #196 Tallmadge (2-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 40-7 H #525 Mogadore Field (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 26 (92%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 41-7 A #641 Akron North (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 31 (96%)
Sep 22 (W5) W 43-6 A #565 Akron Kenmore-Garfield (0-5 D2 R5), pick: W by 22 (89%)
Sep 29 (W6) A #523 Cleveland Heights Lutheran East (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #49 Barberton (5-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 19 (87%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #54 Akron East (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 17 (83%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #102 Akron Buchtel (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #397 Akron Firestone (0-5 D2 R5), pick: W by 8 (68%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#106 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
10.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-3%, 5W-25%, 6W-48%, 7W-21%, 8W-3%

Playoff chance
8% now (need 8-2), 1% home
9% with a win in next game, and 2% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 10.00 (7.60-17.05) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 13.85 (10.25-19.40) 22% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 18.05 (15.90-22.05) 94% in, 4% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
4.0% WWLLW 14.80 pts, 34% in (out, range #6-out) Archbishop Hoban 74%

Worst realistic scenario
3.0% LLLLL 5.45 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
35% WLLLW 9.60 pts, out
18% WLLLL 7.90 pts, out
10% WLLWW 12.85 pts, 6% in (out, range #6-out) Archbishop Hoban 88%
5.9% LLLLW 7.15 pts, out
4.8% WLLWL 11.10 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
4.7% WLWLW 14.70 pts, 30% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Archbishop Hoban 68%
(15% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Macedonia Nordonia (4-1 D2 R5) over Twinsburg (3-2 D2 R5)
Week 7: Akron Springfield (1-4 D3 R9) over Lodi Cloverleaf (2-3 D3 R9)
Week 9: Austintown-Fitch (4-1 D1 R1) over Youngstown Boardman (4-1 D2 R5)
Week 7: Ottawa-Glandorf (2-3 D5 R18) over Defiance (3-2 D3 R10)
Week 9: Akron Springfield (1-4 D3 R9) over Akron Coventry (3-2 D3 R9)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
50% Akron Archbishop Hoban (5-0)
19% Maple Heights (5-0)
14% Garfield Heights (5-0)
7% Macedonia Nordonia (4-1)
4% Youngstown Boardman (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 107.4 (3-1, #267, D2 #73) 11% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 109.5 (2-1, #232, D2 #65) 24% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W2: 108.3 (1-1, #248, D2 #68) 16% (need 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
W1: 110.5 (1-0, #220, D2 #62) 32% (bubble if 7-3), 8% home, proj. #8
W0: 107.4 (0-0, #282, D2 #79) 13% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
Last year 101.6 (3-6)