Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#397 Akron Firestone (0-5) 97.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#90 of 108 in Division II
#23 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 0-63 A #24 Wadsworth (5-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 27 (90%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-28 A #182 Copley (2-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 8 (66%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 12-51 A #139 Richfield Revere (3-2 D3 R9), pick: L by 24 (90%)
Sep 15 (W4) L 0-28 A #102 Akron Buchtel (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 25 (91%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-42 A #8 Massillon Washington (5-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 39 (99%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #641 Akron North (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 24 (92%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #54 Akron East (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 25 (93%)
Oct 13 (W8) A #565 Akron Kenmore-Garfield (0-5 D2 R5), pick: W by 12 (76%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #130 Wooster (3-2 D2 R7), pick: L by 21 (89%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #264 Akron Ellet (4-1 D2 R5), pick: L by 8 (68%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#2 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
2.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-1%, 1W-16%, 2W-52%, 3W-28%, 4W-3%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
2.1% WWWLL 7.25 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
11% WLLLL 1.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
42% WLWLL 2.15 pts, out
22% WLWLW 5.45 pts, out
5.2% WLLLW 4.70 pts, out
4.0% LLWLL 1.15 pts, out
3.8% WLWWL 6.00 pts, out
2.1% LLWLW 4.40 pts, out
(8% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 97.7 (0-4, #393, D2 #89) 1% , proj. out
W3: 96.3 (0-3, #415, D2 #95) 1% , proj. out
W2: 98.0 (0-2, #389, D2 #92) 1% , proj. out
W1: 103.1 (0-1, #319, D2 #85) 2% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 105.1 (0-0, #314, D2 #84) 4% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 105.2 (4-6)