Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#451 Ashtabula Lakeside (1-4) 93.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#95 of 108 in Division II
#25 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 54-7 H #585 Ashtabula Edgewood (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 23 (86%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-29 A #314 Madison (2-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 6 (62%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 12-35 A #217 Youngstown East (3-2 D2 R5), pick: L by 9 (68%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 20-47 H #41 Canfield (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 29 (95%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 26-46 A #229 Rocky River (4-1 D3 R10), pick: L by 13 (77%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #45 Warren G Harding (3-2 D2 R5), pick: L by 29 (96%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #69 Austintown-Fitch (4-1 D1 R1), pick: L by 28 (95%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #345 Hunting Valley University School (2-3 D3 R10), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 19 (W9) A McDowell PA, [L by 13, 78%]
Oct 26 (W10) H #86 Youngstown Boardman (4-1 D2 R5), pick: L by 22 (90%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#70 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
4.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-49%, 2W-41%, 3W-9%, 4W-1%

Playoff chance
1% now
2% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
5.4% LLWWL 7.75 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
49% LLLLL 1.70 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
26% LLWLL 4.30 pts, out
11% LLLWL 5.25 pts, out
2.4% LLLLW 5.75 pts, out
(6% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 95.8 (1-3, #425, D2 #95) 1% , proj. out
W3: 96.6 (1-2, #410, D2 #93) 2% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 100.6 (1-1, #361, D2 #86) 4% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 104.8 (1-0, #296, D2 #77) 11% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 106.2 (0-0, #293, D2 #81) 10% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 110.4 (4-6)