Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#49 Barberton (5-0) 130.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#13 of 108 in Division II
#4 of 27 in Region 7
Eitel team page
Region 7 projections
Region 7 playoff probabilities
Region 7 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 21-20 H #193 Norton (4-1 D3 R9), pick: W by 31 (93%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 50-8 H #565 Akron Kenmore-Garfield (0-5 D2 R5), pick: W by 27 (91%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 48-6 H #349 Cuyahoga Falls (1-4 D2 R5), pick: W by 29 (94%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 32-20 A #139 Richfield Revere (3-2 D3 R9), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 31-14 H #182 Copley (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #57 Aurora (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #264 Akron Ellet (4-1 D2 R5), pick: W by 19 (87%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #196 Tallmadge (2-3 D3 R9), pick: W by 16 (83%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #213 Kent Roosevelt (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 16 (83%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #78 Medina Highland (4-1 D2 R7), pick: W by 6 (64%)

Lists on which the team appears
Fantastic 50 Rankings
Winning & losing streaks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#83 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
28.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #3 seed in R7 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-1%, 7W-8%, 8W-28%, 9W-43%, 10W-20%

Playoff chance
90% now (need 8-2), 66% home
99% with a win in next game, and 81% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 20.40 (16.60-25.55) 24% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 24.10 (19.90-28.95) 88% in, 23% home, proj. #6 (#1-out)
9W: 28.00 (23.85-32.90) 99% in, 91% home, proj. #3 (#1-out)
10W: 32.35 (29.05-35.40) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #2 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
20% WWWWW 32.35 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) New Albany 11%

Worst realistic scenario
2.2% LWWLL 20.25 pts, 12% in (out, range #5-out) Massillon Washington 59%

Most likely other scenarios
22% LWWWW 27.75 pts, 99% in, 90% home (#3, range #1-out) New Albany 17%
11% LWWWL 23.20 pts, 76% in, 7% home (#7, range #2-out) Massillon Washington 23%
11% WWWWL 27.80 pts, 100% in, 84% home (#3, range #1-#8) New Albany 15%
4.3% WWWLW 29.55 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Dover 16%
4.2% LWWLW 25.00 pts, 98% in, 40% home (#5, range #2-out) New Albany 20%
3.5% WWLWW 29.65 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Tri-Valley 15%
(22% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Richfield Revere (3-2 D3 R9) over Bay Village Bay (5-0 D3 R10)
Week 10: Akron Kenmore-Garfield (0-5 D2 R5) over Akron North (0-5 D3 R9)
Week 9: Norton (4-1 D3 R9) over Peninsula Woodridge (1-4 D4 R13)
Week 7: Thornville Sheridan (5-0 D3 R11) over Dresden Tri-Valley (5-0 D2 R7)
Week 10: Cuyahoga Falls (1-4 D2 R5) over North Royalton (2-3 D2 R6)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
14% New Albany (3-2)
14% Dover (4-1)
12% Dresden Tri-Valley (5-0)
8% Massillon Perry (5-0)
8% Wadsworth (5-0)

Championship probabilities
6.3% Region 7 champ
0.3% Division 2 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 128.2 (4-0, #54, D2 #15) 83% (need 8-2), 55% home, proj. #2
W3: 124.6 (3-0, #81, D2 #21) 67% (bubble if 7-3), 36% home, proj. #4
W2: 121.1 (2-0, #106, D2 #31) 48% (need 8-2), 16% home, proj. out
W1: 121.6 (1-0, #93, D2 #26) 41% (need 8-2), 14% home, proj. out
W0: 131.7 (0-0, #44, D2 #10) 72% (bubble if 7-3), 43% home, proj. #3
Last year 146.3 (12-1)