Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#105 Chardon (6-3) 123.5

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#16 of 107 in Division III
#8 of 28 in Region 9
Eitel team page
Region 9 projections
Region 9 playoff probabilities
Region 9 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 19-20 A #316 Chesterland West Geauga (3-6 D4 R13), pick: W by 8 (65%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 49-43 H #58 Perry (8-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 13 (75%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 13-35 A #52 Canfield (8-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 13 (76%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 27-28 A #126 Painesville Riverside (7-2 D2 R5), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 34-17 A #158 Mayfield (5-4 D2 R5), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Sep 28 (W6) W 28-7 H #301 Madison (3-6 D2 R5), pick: W by 13 (78%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 52-27 A #304 Willoughby South (2-7 D2 R5), pick: W by 8 (68%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 42-12 H #256 Lyndhurst Brush (4-5 D2 R5), pick: W by 8 (68%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 27-24 A #68 Chagrin Falls Kenston (8-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 12 (77%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #351 Eastlake North (2-7 D2 R5), pick: W by 23 (93%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#7 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
24.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #6 seed in R9 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-7%, 7W-93%

Playoff chance
100% now (need 6-4), 36% home
100% with a win in next game, and 100% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 22.25 (21.70-22.85) 100% in, 7% home, proj. #5 (#4-#6)
7W: 24.05 (23.50-24.65) 100% in, 38% home, proj. #5 (#2-#6)

Playoff scenarios
93% W 24.05 pts, 100% in, 38% home (#5, range #2-#6) Buckeye 46%
7.0% L 22.25 pts, 100% in, 7% home (#5, range #4-#6) East 40%

Teams to root for
Week 10: Alliance (6-3 D3 R9) over Alliance Marlington (8-1 D3 R9)
Week 10: Akron Buchtel (5-4 D4 R13) over Akron East (8-1 D3 R9)
Week 10: Mayfield (5-4 D2 R5) over Painesville Riverside (7-2 D2 R5)
Week 10: Fairview Park Fairview (3-6 D4 R14) over Rocky River Lutheran West (6-3 D4 R14)
Week 10: Streetsboro (4-5 D4 R13) over Lodi Cloverleaf (4-5 D3 R9)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
46% Medina Buckeye (8-1)
25% Akron East (8-1)
19% Alliance Marlington (8-1)
4% Chagrin Falls Kenston (8-1)
3% Canfield (8-1)

Championship probabilities
8.1% Region 9 champ
1.3% Division 3 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 123.5 (6-3, #105, D3 #16) in and 36% home, proj. #6
W8: 120.4 (5-3, #123, D3 #20) 31% (need 7-3), 13% home, proj. out
W7: 119.6 (4-3, #128, D3 #23) 29% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home, proj. out
W6: 118.7 (3-3, #142, D3 #25) 19% (need 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W5: 115.5 (2-3, #168, D3 #33) 12% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W4: 110.6 (1-3, #213, D3 #44) 3% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 114.2 (1-2, #176, D3 #35) 15% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
W2: 115.6 (1-1, #163, D3 #30) 35% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home, proj. out
W1: 108.4 (0-1, #242, D3 #50) 10% (need 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 116.9 (0-0, #162, D3 #33) 34% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home, proj. out
Last year 115.5 (6-4)