Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#604 Cleveland Collinwood (0-5) 77.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#101 of 107 in Division III
#27 of 28 in Region 9
Eitel team page
Region 9 projections
Region 9 playoff probabilities
Region 9 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 6-21 H #287 Wickliffe (5-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 23 (86%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 6-23 A #303 Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 16 (79%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-41 A #229 Rocky River (4-1 D3 R10), pick: L by 28 (93%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 6-40 A #67 Cleveland Glenville (3-2 D3 R10), pick: L by 38 (98%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-19 A #496 Cleveland John Hay (1-4 D3 R10), pick: L by 10 (72%)
Sep 29 (W6) A #447 Dayton Thurgood Marshall (0-5 D3 R12), pick: L by 16 (83%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #652 Cleveland John F Kennedy (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 8 (68%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #503 Cleveland Rhodes (1-4 D1 R1), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #644 Cleveland East Technical (0-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Oct 27 (W10) H #706 Cleveland Lincoln West (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 25 (93%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#46 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 97
Projected record 3-7
3.97 Harbin points (divisor 97)
Projected out of R9 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-11%, 2W-35%, 3W-38%, 4W-15%, 5W-2%

Best realistic scenario
8.8% LWWWW 6.27 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
7.9% LLLLW 0.55 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
21% LWLWW 3.97 pts, out
16% LWLLW 2.23 pts, out
11% LLLWW 2.29 pts, out
5.7% LWWLW 4.64 pts, out
4.4% LLWWW 4.64 pts, out
4.1% WWLWW 6.12 pts, out
(21% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 80.2 (0-4, #584, D3 #99) out
W3: 78.2 (0-3, #612, D3 #103) out
W2: 75.2 (0-2, #627, D3 #105) out
W1: 76.3 (0-1, #636, D3 #104) out
W0: 76.8 (0-0, #642, D3 #105) 1% , proj. out
Last year 74.5 (3-7)