Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#652 Cleveland John F Kennedy (1-4) 71.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#106 of 107 in Division III
#25 of 26 in Region 10
Eitel team page
Region 10 projections
Region 10 playoff probabilities
Region 10 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) L 0-54 A #74 Dover (4-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 34 (95%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 12-56 A #188 Canfield South Range (3-2 D5 R17), pick: L by 28 (92%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 6-37 A #622 Sheffield Brookside (1-4 D4 R14), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 14-12 H #644 Cleveland East Technical (0-4 D3 R10), pick: L by 9 (69%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-42 H #503 Cleveland Rhodes (1-4 D1 R1), pick: L by 11 (74%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #706 Cleveland Lincoln West (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 16 (83%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #604 Cleveland Collinwood (0-5 D3 R9), pick: L by 8 (68%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #67 Cleveland Glenville (3-2 D3 R10), pick: L by 40 (99%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #496 Cleveland John Hay (1-4 D3 R10), pick: L by 14 (79%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #119 St Clairsville (5-0 D4 R15), pick: L by 38 (99%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#87 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 97
Projected record 2-8
2.29 Harbin points (divisor 97)
Projected out of R10 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-10%, 2W-52%, 3W-33%, 4W-5%

Best realistic scenario
4.5% WWLWL 6.32 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
10% LLLLL 1.68 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
45% WLLLL 2.29 pts, out
23% WWLLL 3.97 pts, out
9.4% WLLWL 4.64 pts, out
5.4% LWLLL 3.42 pts, out
2.0% LLLWL 4.09 pts, out
1.0% LWLWL 5.77 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 73.9 (1-3, #636, D3 #104) out
W3: 72.5 (0-3, #650, D3 #105) out
W2: 79.0 (0-2, #602, D3 #101) 1% , proj. out
W1: 79.0 (0-1, #604, D3 #103) 1% , proj. out
W0: 80.9 (0-0, #612, D3 #103) 1% , proj. out
Last year 74.8 (3-7)