Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#182 Copley (2-3) 114.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#56 of 108 in Division II
#11 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 28-49 A #112 Twinsburg (3-2 D2 R5), pick: L by 3 (55%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 28-0 H #397 Akron Firestone (0-5 D2 R5), pick: W by 8 (66%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-35 H #100 Uniontown Lake (3-2 D2 R7), pick: L by 8 (65%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 23-6 H #191 Bedford (1-4 D2 R5), pick: L by 9 (70%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 14-31 A #49 Barberton (5-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 15 (81%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #139 Richfield Revere (3-2 D3 R9), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #196 Tallmadge (2-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #78 Medina Highland (4-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 10 (73%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #57 Aurora (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 11 (74%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #213 Kent Roosevelt (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 3 (57%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#32 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
10.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-8%, 3W-28%, 4W-36%, 5W-21%, 6W-6%

Playoff chance
10% now (need 6-4), 1% home
19% with a win in next game, and 4% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 10.50 (6.85-15.55) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 13.90 (10.40-18.65) 23% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 17.75 (14.40-21.45) 86% in, 2% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.2% WWWLW 17.25 pts, 78% in (#8, range #5-out) Archbishop Hoban 38%

Worst realistic scenario
8.2% LLLLL 4.60 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
9.5% LLLLW 6.90 pts, out
9.0% LWLLW 9.35 pts, out
8.3% LWLLL 6.93 pts, out
7.0% WLLLW 10.35 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
6.8% WWLLW 13.05 pts, 7% in (out, range #7-out) Archbishop Hoban 86%
6.3% WWLLL 10.35 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
(43% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Bedford (1-4 D2 R5) over Cleveland Heights (3-2 D1 R1)
Week 8: Wadsworth (5-0 D2 R7) over Twinsburg (3-2 D2 R5)
Week 6: Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17) over Geneva (2-3 D3 R9)
Week 10: Chardon (2-3 D3 R9) over Eastlake North (2-3 D2 R5)
Week 6: Aurora (4-1 D3 R9) over Barberton (5-0 D2 R7)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
47% Akron Archbishop Hoban (5-0)
22% Maple Heights (5-0)
14% Garfield Heights (5-0)
5% Youngstown Boardman (4-1)
5% Macedonia Nordonia (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 114.5 (2-2, #179, D2 #56) 22% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home, proj. out
W3: 108.8 (1-2, #243, D2 #70) 7% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 112.2 (1-1, #197, D2 #55) 16% (need 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
W1: 109.8 (0-1, #229, D2 #65) 8% (need 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 117.6 (0-0, #152, D2 #47) 25% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home, proj. out
Last year 117.0 (4-6)