Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#380 East Cleveland Shaw (2-3) 98.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#79 of 107 in Division III
#17 of 26 in Region 10
Eitel team page
Region 10 projections
Region 10 playoff probabilities
Region 10 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 25 (W1) L 6-20 H #83 Shaker Heights (4-1 D1 R1), pick: L by 12 (71%)
Sep 01 (W2) L 32-33 A Detroit Delta Prep MI (1-3 D7)
Sep 07 (W3) W 15-14 A #523 Cleveland Heights Lutheran East (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 14 (78%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 47-0 H #559 Cleveland Villa Angela-St Joseph (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 18 (84%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 20-35 A #259 Columbiana Crestview (3-2 D5 R17), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #374 Warrensville Heights (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #71 Maple Heights (5-0 D2 R5), pick: L by 21 (89%)
Oct 11 (W8) A #191 Bedford (1-4 D2 R5), pick: L by 13 (77%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #155 Cleveland Heights (3-2 D1 R1), pick: L by 14 (80%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #79 Lorain (3-2 D1 R2), pick: L by 24 (92%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#91 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 3-7
6.10 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R10 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-33%, 3W-46%, 4W-18%, 5W-3%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 9.32 (5.54-15.38) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 12.65 (9.57-17.75) 14% in, 1% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
5.9% WLLWL 9.37 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
33% LLLLL 4.01 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
29% WLLLL 5.74 pts, out
7.0% LLWLL 6.10 pts, out
6.5% LLLWL 7.56 pts, out
5.7% WLWLL 8.01 pts, out
2.5% LWLLL 9.35 pts, out
(11% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
40% Bay Village Bay (5-0)
25% Sandusky (5-0)
15% Tiffin Columbian (4-1)
9% Cleveland Glenville (3-2)
6% Norwalk (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 102.0 (2-2, #341, D3 #68) 3% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 103.9 (1-2, #310, D3 #59) 6% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 105.4 (0-2, #291, D3 #58) 7% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 103.4 (0-1, #314, D3 #69) 5% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 106.7 (0-0, #288, D3 #67) 11% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 108.7 (2-8)