Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#213 Kent Roosevelt (2-3) 111.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#59 of 108 in Division II
#14 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 23-7 A #349 Cuyahoga Falls (1-4 D2 R5), pick: W by 7 (64%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-35 A #97 Alliance Marlington (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 6 (62%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 23-20 H #174 Ravenna (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 14 (77%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 23-63 A #78 Medina Highland (4-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 13 (77%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-34 H #57 Aurora (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 15 (81%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #196 Tallmadge (2-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #139 Richfield Revere (3-2 D3 R9), pick: L by 10 (73%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #259 Columbiana Crestview (3-2 D5 R17), pick: W by 4 (60%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #49 Barberton (5-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 16 (83%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #182 Copley (2-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 3 (57%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#18 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 4-6
11.90 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-7%, 3W-25%, 4W-37%, 5W-24%, 6W-7%

Playoff chance
20% now (bubble if 5-5), 1% home
29% with a win in next game, and 12% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 11.90 (8.51-17.65) 5% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 15.07 (10.98-20.07) 48% in, 1% home, proj. out
6W: 18.50 (15.32-22.59) 94% in, 10% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
3.3% WWWLW 17.49 pts, 89% in, 2% home (#7, range #4-out) Maple Heights 28%

Worst realistic scenario
7.0% LLLLL 6.20 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
8.6% WLWLL 11.59 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
8.4% LLWLL 8.92 pts, out
8.0% WLWLW 14.11 pts, 28% in (out, range #5-out) Archbishop Hoban 68%
7.7% LLWLW 11.59 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
6.6% WLLLL 8.92 pts, out
5.8% WLLLW 11.34 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
(45% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Ravenna (4-1 D3 R9) over Norton (4-1 D3 R9)
Week 7: Stow-Munroe Falls (1-4 D1 R1) over Twinsburg (3-2 D2 R5)
Week 9: Austintown-Fitch (4-1 D1 R1) over Youngstown Boardman (4-1 D2 R5)
Week 10: Macedonia Nordonia (4-1 D2 R5) over Twinsburg (3-2 D2 R5)
Week 7: Chagrin Falls Kenston (5-0 D3 R9) over Painesville Riverside (4-1 D2 R5)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
41% Akron Archbishop Hoban (5-0)
24% Maple Heights (5-0)
14% Garfield Heights (5-0)
7% Macedonia Nordonia (4-1)
5% Youngstown Boardman (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 110.2 (2-2, #220, D2 #64) 21% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home, proj. out
W3: 110.7 (2-1, #216, D2 #63) 35% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home, proj. #6
W2: 103.2 (1-1, #328, D2 #82) 3% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 107.1 (1-0, #268, D2 #75) 9% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 106.0 (0-0, #299, D2 #82) 4% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 102.8 (2-8)