Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#314 Madison (2-3) 104.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#80 of 108 in Division II
#20 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 22-14 A #348 Geneva (2-3 D3 R9), pick: W by 9 (67%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 29-0 H #451 Ashtabula Lakeside (1-4 D2 R5), pick: W by 6 (62%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 6-38 H #107 Perry (4-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 21-42 A #218 Willoughby South (2-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 6 (62%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 13-28 H #148 Painesville Riverside (4-1 D2 R5), pick: L by 7 (66%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #169 Chardon (2-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 7 (66%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #209 Mayfield (2-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 12 (77%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #75 Chagrin Falls Kenston (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 18 (86%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #220 Eastlake North (2-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #255 Lyndhurst Brush (2-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 4 (59%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#73 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
6.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-18%, 3W-38%, 4W-31%, 5W-12%

Playoff chance
3% now (need 6-4), 1% home
7% with a win in next game, and 2% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 9.65 (6.25-15.15) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 12.65 (9.50-17.55) 11% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 16.45 (12.60-20.25) 70% in, 2% home, proj. #8 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.1% WWLLW 12.27 pts, 3% in (out, range #8-out)

Worst realistic scenario
18% LLLLL 3.90 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
15% LLLLW 6.60 pts, out
8.1% LLLWL 6.70 pts, out
7.3% LWLLL 6.70 pts, out
6.7% LWLLW 9.20 pts, out
6.6% LLLWW 9.50 pts, out
4.9% WLLLL 6.95 pts, out
(31% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Geneva (2-3 D3 R9) over Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17)
Week 8: Geneva (2-3 D3 R9) over Parma Heights Holy Name (1-4 D3 R10)
Week 10: Geneva (2-3 D3 R9) over Chagrin Falls (0-5 D4 R14)
Week 7: Chagrin Falls Kenston (5-0 D3 R9) over Painesville Riverside (4-1 D2 R5)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
54% Akron Archbishop Hoban (5-0)
17% Maple Heights (5-0)
12% Garfield Heights (5-0)
7% Youngstown Boardman (4-1)
5% Macedonia Nordonia (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 105.1 (2-2, #295, D2 #77) 8% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 107.9 (2-1, #262, D2 #76) 24% (need 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
W2: 113.0 (2-0, #189, D2 #53) 52% (bubble if 6-4), 21% home, proj. #8
W1: 109.1 (1-0, #236, D2 #67) 27% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home, proj. out
W0: 110.8 (0-0, #242, D2 #70) 21% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home, proj. out
Last year 103.8 (2-8)