Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#71 Maple Heights (5-0) 126.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#20 of 108 in Division II
#3 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 42-2 H #503 Cleveland Rhodes (1-4 D1 R1), pick: W by 20 (84%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 41-0 A #218 Willoughby South (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 5 (59%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 38-7 H #220 Eastlake North (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 13 (75%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 70-11 H #345 Hunting Valley University School (2-3 D3 R10), pick: W by 24 (91%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 38-14 A #239 Mansfield (2-3 D3 R10), pick: W by 12 (76%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #191 Bedford (1-4 D2 R5), pick: W by 13 (78%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #380 East Cleveland Shaw (2-3 D3 R10), pick: W by 21 (89%)
Oct 11 (W8) H #79 Lorain (3-2 D1 R2), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #374 Warrensville Heights (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 24 (92%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #155 Cleveland Heights (3-2 D1 R1), pick: W by 6 (63%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#91 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
26.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #2 seed in R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-5%, 8W-24%, 9W-44%, 10W-27%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 7-3), 93% home
99% with a win in next game, and 99% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 19.80 (14.55-25.55) 99% in, 43% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)
8W: 22.80 (17.70-29.85) 100% in, 86% home, proj. #3 (#1-#8)
9W: 26.00 (21.15-31.65) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#6)
10W: 29.80 (25.35-34.70) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #2 (#1-#3)

Best realistic scenario
27% WWWWW 29.80 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#3) Riverside 15%

Worst realistic scenario
2.4% LWLWL 19.05 pts, 99% in, 29% home (#5, range #2-out) Nordonia 20%

Most likely other scenarios
21% WWLWW 25.40 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#6) Warren G Harding 17%
13% WWWWL 26.00 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Warren G Harding 17%
10% WWLWL 21.67 pts, 100% in, 76% home (#4, range #2-#8) Nordonia 19%
6.3% LWWWW 27.27 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Warren G Harding 15%
5.1% LWLWW 23.05 pts, 100% in, 90% home (#3, range #2-#6) Riverside 22%
3.0% LWWWL 23.55 pts, 100% in, 93% home (#3, range #2-#7) Nordonia 19%
(13% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Eastlake North (2-3 D2 R5) over Mayfield (2-3 D2 R5)
Week 9: Willoughby South (2-3 D2 R5) over Mayfield (2-3 D2 R5)
Week 6: Eastlake North (2-3 D2 R5) over Painesville Riverside (4-1 D2 R5)
Week 9: Austintown-Fitch (4-1 D1 R1) over Youngstown Boardman (4-1 D2 R5)
Week 8: Mansfield (2-3 D3 R10) over Wooster (3-2 D2 R7)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
16% Painesville Riverside (4-1)
16% Warren G Harding (3-2)
14% Youngstown Boardman (4-1)
13% Macedonia Nordonia (4-1)
8% Twinsburg (3-2)

Championship probabilities
2.4% Region 5 champ
0.1% Division 2 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 124.8 (4-0, #82, D2 #20) 99% (need 6-4), 88% home, proj. #2
W3: 123.7 (3-0, #86, D2 #23) 97% (need 6-4), 80% home, proj. #4
W2: 119.1 (2-0, #131, D2 #36) 73% (bubble if 6-4), 37% home, proj. #5
W1: 114.4 (1-0, #164, D2 #47) 49% (bubble if 6-4), 21% home, proj. #6
W0: 115.3 (0-0, #182, D2 #52) 36% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home, proj. out
Last year 115.7 (4-6)