Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#96 Olmsted Falls (4-1) 123.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#29 of 108 in Division II
#6 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 55-28 H #412 Brecksville-Broadview Heights (0-5 D2 R5), pick: W by 8 (64%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-52 A #37 Avon (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 7 (63%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 48-14 H #298 Westlake (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 26 (92%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 49-14 A #415 Lakewood (0-5 D2 R6), pick: W by 23 (90%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 46-14 A #309 North Ridgeville (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 14 (79%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #93 Amherst Steele (5-0 D2 R6), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #136 Berea-Midpark (3-2 D1 R1), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #302 Grafton Midview (0-5 D2 R6), pick: W by 17 (84%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #40 Avon Lake (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 9 (71%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #241 North Olmsted (2-3 D2 R6), pick: W by 6 (64%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#84 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
16.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-5%, 6W-22%, 7W-39%, 8W-27%, 9W-6%

Playoff chance
45% now (need 8-2), 6% home
66% with a win in next game, and 22% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 12.05 (10.20-18.65) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 16.20 (13.85-22.90) 32% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 20.40 (18.60-25.90) 95% in, 4% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
9W: 25.30 (24.65-27.70) 100% in, 76% home, proj. #4 (#2-#7)

Best realistic scenario
6.3% WWWWW 25.30 pts, 100% in, 76% home (#4, range #2-#7) Avon Lake 33%

Worst realistic scenario
2.7% LLWLL 7.85 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
14% WWWLW 19.30 pts, 92% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Anthony Wayne 32%
13% LWWLW 14.50 pts, 10% in (out, range #7-out) Central Catholic 79%
10% WLWLW 16.15 pts, 29% in (out, range #6-out) Central Catholic 65%
9.2% LLWLW 10.85 pts, out
6.1% LWWWW 20.55 pts, 95% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Anthony Wayne 28%
4.9% LLWWW 16.90 pts, 43% in (out, range #7-out) Central Catholic 67%
(34% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Bay Village Bay (5-0 D3 R10) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 8: Toledo Scott (4-1 D3 R10) over Toledo Waite (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 7: Rocky River (4-1 D3 R10) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 6: Toledo Start (1-4 D1 R2) over Toledo Waite (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 9: Parma Heights Holy Name (1-4 D3 R10) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
27% Toledo Central Catholic (5-0)
22% Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0)
20% Avon Lake (5-0)
14% Avon (4-1)
9% Amherst Steele (5-0)

Championship probabilities
0.9% Region 6 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 121.6 (3-1, #107, D2 #30) 34% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W3: 121.1 (2-1, #105, D2 #28) 37% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home, proj. out
W2: 123.6 (1-1, #85, D2 #22) 60% (need 7-3), 17% home, proj. #8
W1: 129.3 (1-0, #49, D2 #11) 88% (bubble if 6-4), 58% home, proj. #3
W0: 126.9 (0-0, #71, D2 #16) 68% (bubble if 6-4), 36% home, proj. #4
Last year 136.0 (11-2)