Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#526 Parma Normandy (3-2) 86.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#101 of 108 in Division II
#26 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 48-14 H #643 Wellington (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 13 (73%)
Aug 30 (W2) W 70-12 H #706 Cleveland Lincoln West (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 25 (90%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 2-41 A #445 Rocky River Lutheran West (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 14-48 A #222 Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 25 (92%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 12-7 H #555 Parma (1-4 D2 R6), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #313 Parma Heights Holy Name (1-4 D3 R10), pick: L by 21 (89%)
Oct 04 (W7) H #151 Bay Village Bay (5-0 D3 R10), pick: L by 29 (96%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #229 Rocky River (4-1 D3 R10), pick: L by 25 (93%)
Oct 18 (W9) H #377 Elyria Catholic (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 20 (87%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #90 Garfield Heights (5-0 D2 R5), pick: L by 32 (97%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#108 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 3-7
3.52 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-56%, 4W-36%, 5W-7%, 6W-1%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
3.1% WLLWL 8.91 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
56% LLLLL 3.52 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
20% LLLWL 6.19 pts, out
8.3% WLLLL 5.79 pts, out
4.7% LLWLL 7.50 pts, out
2.7% LWLLL 8.01 pts, out
(5% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 83.1 (2-2, #557, D2 #105) 1% , proj. out
W3: 83.4 (2-1, #562, D2 #105) 1% , proj. out
W2: 86.9 (2-0, #528, D2 #105) 1% , proj. out
W1: 87.3 (1-0, #531, D2 #105) 1% , proj. out
W0: 86.6 (0-0, #558, D2 #107) 1% , proj. out
Last year 83.1 (3-7)